[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 28 December 09

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 28/2330Z DECEMBER 2009 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 28 DECEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 29 DECEMBER - 31 DECEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 28 Dec:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 28 Dec:  76/14


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             29 Dec             30 Dec             31 Dec
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    78/17              78/17              79/19
COMMENT: Solar wind parameters remain at nominal levels. Solar 
activity is expected to stay at very low levels for the next 
three days. 




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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 28 Dec: Quiet 

Estimated Indices 28 Dec :  A   K           
   Australian Region       3   11111111
      Darwin               3   12110111
      Townsville           3   21111111
      Learmonth            3   11111111
      Canberra             0   00000000
      Hobart               1   11100000
      Casey(Ant)           8   3-332111
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 28 Dec : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice_Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gnangara             0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Hobart               0   (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 28 Dec : A 
           Fredericksburg         1
           Planetary              5                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 27 Dec :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         1
           Planetary              2   0011 1100     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
29 Dec     2    Quiet 
30 Dec     2    Quiet 
31 Dec     2    Quiet 
COMMENT: Mostly quiet geomagnetic conditions were observed throughout 
the region today. Similar conditions may be expected for the 
next three days. 

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
28 Dec      Normal         Normal         Normal         
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
29 Dec      Normal         Normal         Normal
30 Dec      Normal         Normal         Normal
31 Dec      Normal         Normal         Normal

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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
28 Dec   -10

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 25% during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Depressed by 25% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Predicted Monthly T index for December:   1

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
29 Dec    -5    near predicted monthly values 
30 Dec    -5    near predicted monthly values 
31 Dec   -10    Near predicted monthly values 
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF conditions were observed in the Aus/NZ 
region today. Recurrence and continuing low solar activity suggests 
possible occasional MUF depressions of 10 to 20%. 
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 27 Dec
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   3.7E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.9E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 4.90E+04   (normal fluence)   
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A2.0

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 27 Dec
Speed: 378 km/sec  Density:    3.1 p/cc  Temp:    54700 K  Bz:   0 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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