[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 27 December 09

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Mon Dec 28 10:37:27 EST 2009


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 27/2330Z DECEMBER 2009 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 27 DECEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 28 DECEMBER - 30 DECEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 27 Dec:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 27 Dec:  77/16


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             28 Dec             29 Dec             30 Dec
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    78/17              79/19              80/20
COMMENT: Solar activity was very low today. Solar wind speed 
decreased from 400 km/s to 360 km/s whereas the Bz component 
of the IMF varied between +/-4nT during the UT day today. Solar 
activity is expected to stay at very low levels for the next 
three days. 
-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 27 Dec: Quiet 

Estimated Indices 27 Dec :  A   K           
   Australian Region       4   21122111
      Darwin               3   11111112
      Townsville           5   21122112
      Learmonth            4   21122101
      Canberra             1   01111000
      Hobart               4   12222100
      Casey(Ant)           8   3--32211
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 27 Dec : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice_Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gnangara             0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Hobart               0   (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 27 Dec : A 
           Fredericksburg         2
           Planetary              5                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 26 Dec :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         2
           Planetary              3   1210 0100     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
28 Dec     2    Quiet 
29 Dec     2    Quiet 
30 Dec     2    Quiet 
COMMENT: Mostly quiet geomagnetic conditions were observed on 
most locations today. Similar conditions may be expected for 
the next three days. 
-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
27 Dec      Normal         Normal         Normal         
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
28 Dec      Normal         Normal         Normal
29 Dec      Normal         Normal         Normal
30 Dec      Normal         Normal         Normal
COMMENT: HF conditions were mostly normal on most locations 
today. Sporadic E-layer influences were also observed at low 
and some mid latitude locations. Nearly similar HF conditions 
with periods of minor depressions in MUFs may be expected for 
the next three days as the ionospheric ionisation may remain 
weak due to very low solar activity. 
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY

Date   T index
27 Dec    -7

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Depressed by 15% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Predicted Monthly T index for December:   1

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
28 Dec    -5    Near predicted monthly values with occasional 
                depressions to 10%. 
29 Dec    -5    Near predicted monthly values with occasional 
                depressions to 10%. 
30 Dec    -5    Near predicted monthly values with occasional 
                depressions to 10%. 
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF conditions were observed in the Aus/NZ 
region today. Nearly similar conditions with some periods of 
minor MUF depressions may be expected for the next three days 
as the ionosphere stays weak due to very low solar activity. 
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 26 Dec
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   4.0E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  2.0E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.50E+04   (normal fluence)   
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A4.1

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 26 Dec
Speed: 396 km/sec  Density:    3.6 p/cc  Temp:    66900 K  Bz:   0 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------


IPS Radio and Space Services        email: asfc at ips.gov.au
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