[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 20 December 09
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Mon Dec 21 10:30:59 EST 2009
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 20/2330Z DECEMBER 2009 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 20 DECEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 21 DECEMBER - 23 DECEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 20 Dec: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 20 Dec: 84/26
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
21 Dec 22 Dec 23 Dec
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 84/26 80/20 76/14
COMMENT: Small region 1038 (N16 W26) was numbered. The expected
disturbance in the solar wind and IMF has not occurred although
it may still eventuate. The solar wind speed remained below about
400 km/s while the Bz component of the IMF ranged between approx.
+/-4 nT. There remains the potential of C-class flares from region
1035 (N31 W70) which has shown no significant changes.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 20 Dec: Quiet
Estimated Indices 20 Dec : A K
Australian Region 4 11122211
Darwin 4 11121211
Townsville 6 22122212
Learmonth 3 11022200
Canberra 1 00011100
Hobart 1 00021100
Casey(Ant) 9 23332221
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 20 Dec :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice_Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gnangara 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 20 Dec : A
Fredericksburg 2
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 19 Dec : A K
Fredericksburg 0
Planetary 1 0000 0000
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
21 Dec 7 Quiet
22 Dec 5 Quiet
23 Dec 5 Quiet
COMMENT: The expected disturbance has not eventuated although
there is still the chance of it occurring today.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
20 Dec Fair-normal Fair-normal Fair-normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
21 Dec Fair-normal Fair-normal Fair-normal
22 Dec Fair-normal Fair-normal Fair-normal
23 Dec Fair-normal Fair-normal Fair-normal
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
20 Dec -3
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values. Night spread F 16-21
UT. Sporadic E observed 00-02 UT.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values with depressions to 20%
00-03 and 19-21 UT. Some night spread F. Sporadic E
observed 00-01 and 20-23 UT.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values. Enhancements to 20%
00-04 UT and depressions to 30% 07-10 and 16-20 UT at
Darwin and 04-05 and 17-19 UT at Townsville. Sporadic
E observed at Darwin 18-19 UT.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values with occasional
depressions to 15%. Sporadic E observed mostly 00-06
and 17-23 UT, although observed 09-17 UT at Hobart.
Some night spread F observed at Brisbane.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values with depressions to 20%
00-18 UT at Davis and 14-16 UT at Macquarie Is.
Predicted Monthly T index for December: 1
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
21 Dec -5 Near predicted monthly values with occasional
depressions to 30%.
22 Dec -5 Near predicted monthly values with occasional
depressions to 30%.
23 Dec -5 Near predicted monthly values with occasional
depressions to 30%.
COMMENT: The expected depressions for today and tomorrow are
unlikely to occur. Summertime sporadic E may affect communications
at times.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 19 Dec
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 4.7E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 2.0E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 8.70E+04 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A7.1
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 19 Dec
Speed: 408 km/sec Density: 0.5 p/cc Temp: 74200 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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IPS Radio and Space Services email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au
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