[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 16 December 09
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Thu Dec 17 10:32:39 EST 2009
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 16/2330Z DECEMBER 2009 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 16 DECEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 17 DECEMBER - 19 DECEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 16 Dec: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 16 Dec: 83/24
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
17 Dec 18 Dec 19 Dec
Activity Low Low Low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 82/23 82/23 82/23
COMMENT: Region 1035 (N30 W18) produced two C-class flares at
0124 UT (C5.4) and 1302 (C3.7) along with a number of B-class
x-ray events. At approx. 0309 UT, a CME was observed by Stereo
A to erupt from the visible disc, this was also observed by Stereo
B later. Around 0215 UT, the solar wind increased abruptly and
has steadily increased to around 360 km/s. Around 23 UT the GOES
instrument observed an increase in x-ray flux to C-class.
Region 1035 may produce C or an isolated M-class flare today.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 16 Dec: Quiet. Isolated
unsettled to active periods at higher latitudes.
Estimated Indices 16 Dec : A K
Australian Region 5 21122211
Darwin 4 21121112
Townsville 5 22122211
Learmonth 6 31122211
Canberra 1 11011100
Hobart 4 22211210
Casey(Ant) 9 3--32221
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 16 Dec :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice_Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gnangara 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 16 Dec : A
Fredericksburg 3
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 15 Dec : A K
Fredericksburg 0
Planetary 0 0000 0001
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
17 Dec 5 Quiet
18 Dec 6 Mostly quiet, isolated unsettled periods possible.
19 Dec 7 Mostly quiet, isolated unsettled periods possible.
COMMENT: Isolated active periods possible at higher latitudes
17 to 19 December.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
16 Dec Fair-normal Fair-normal Fair-normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
17 Dec Fair-normal Fair-normal Fair-normal
18 Dec Fair-normal Fair-normal Fair-normal
19 Dec Fair-normal Fair-normal Fair-normal
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
16 Dec -12
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values. Depressions to 15% 01,
02 and 16-17 UT.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values withe depressions to 30%
00-05 and 19-22 UT.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values. Depressions to 35% at
Darwin 03-06, 08-11 and 16-20 UT. Depressions to 25%
at Townsville 03-05, 17, 18 UT. Sporadic E observed
11-12 and 16 UT at Darwin and 16-29 UT at Townsville.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values. Depressions to 30% at
Brisbane (00-02, 04-06, 11-14 and 18-22 UT), Norfolk Is.
(02-05, 09-15 UT) Hobart (21-23 UT) and Christchurch
(01, 07, 09 and 18-22 UT). Sporadic E observed at
various times but mostly 00-09 and 15-23 UT, sometimes
blanketing.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values to 15% depressed.
Depressions to 30% at Macquarie Is. 12-16 UT.
Predicted Monthly T index for December: 1
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
17 Dec -5 Mostly near predicted monthly values. Occasional
depressions to 30%.
18 Dec -5 Mostly near predicted monthly values. Occasional
depressions to 30%.
19 Dec -10 Near predicted monthly values to 20% depressed.
COMMENT: Summertime sporadic E may affect communications at times.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 15 Dec
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 7.2E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.9E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 4.10E+04 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A5.1
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 15 Dec
Speed: 283 km/sec Density: 2.0 p/cc Temp: 16400 K Bz: 2 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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