[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 07 August 09
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sat Aug 8 09:16:50 EST 2009
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 07/2330Z AUGUST 2009 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 07 AUGUST AND FORECAST FOR 08 AUGUST - 10 AUGUST
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 07 Aug: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 07 Aug: 68/2
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
08 Aug 09 Aug 10 Aug
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 67/0 67/0 67/0
COMMENT: The visible solar disc is spotless. The solar wind speed
decreased from 500 to 440 km/s over the UT day 7 August and is
expected to settled to just under 400 km/s over the UT day, 8
August. Mid way through 9 August expect the solar wind to return
to elevated levels due to a recurrent coronal hole. The solar
wind is likely to remain elevated around 550 km/s on 10 August
and then return to normal levels.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 07 Aug: Quiet
Estimated Indices 07 Aug : A K
Australian Region 6 22121222
Darwin 6 12222122
Townsville 7 22222222
Learmonth 7 11132223
Camden 6 22131212
Canberra 3 11121111
Hobart 5 21131112
Casey(Ant) 8 33221221
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 07 Aug :
Darwin 11 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 2 (Quiet)
Alice_Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gnangara 9 (Quiet)
Canberra 14 (Quiet)
Hobart 30 (Quiet to unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 07 Aug : A
Fredericksburg 7
Planetary 7
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 06 Aug : A K
Fredericksburg 8
Planetary 14 3442 2322
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
08 Aug 4 Quiet
09 Aug 10 Quiet to Unsettled
10 Aug 8 Quiet to Unsettled
COMMENT: Expect quiet levels of geomagnetic activity today, 8
August and quiet to unsettled conditions 9-10 Ausgust due to
an increase in the solar wind stream speed. The increase in wind
stream may also cause isolated periods of active geomagnetic
conditions at high latitudes particular during local night time
hours.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
07 Aug Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
08 Aug Normal Normal Normal
09 Aug Normal Normal Normal-Fair
10 Aug Normal Normal Normal-Fair
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
07 Aug -3
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values,
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for August: 1
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
08 Aug 1 Near predicted monthly values
09 Aug 1 Near predicted monthly values
10 Aug 1 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Hobart observed spread-F from midnight to dawn. Es was
observed at Darwin post-dusk and Cocos Island observed Es during
most of the local day and into the early local night hours.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 06 Aug
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 8.1E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.9E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.20E+05 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A1.0
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 06 Aug
Speed: 485 km/sec Density: 6.7 p/cc Temp: 153000 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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