[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 06 August 09
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri Aug 7 09:58:12 EST 2009
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 06/2330Z AUGUST 2009 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 06 AUGUST AND FORECAST FOR 07 AUGUST - 09 AUGUST
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 06 Aug: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 06 Aug: 67/0
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
07 Aug 08 Aug 09 Aug
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 67/0 67/0 67/0
COMMENT: The visible disc is spotless. The solar wind speed Vsw
rose sharply from 380 to 520 km/sec at 05-06UT due to a recurrent
coronal hole. As a precursor to this IMF Bz turned strongly southwards
to -15nT from 01-05UT encouraging merging with the geomagnetic
field. Vsw is still elevated ~500 km/sec but should return to
normal levels during 7th August UT day.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 06 Aug: Quiet to Active
Estimated Indices 06 Aug : A K
Australian Region 8 22422211
Darwin 6 22312112
Townsville 9 22422222
Learmonth 11 22522221
Camden 6 12312211
Canberra 4 12311110
Hobart 6 12321211
Casey(Ant) 10 23421222
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 06 Aug :
Darwin 6 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice_Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gnangara 2 (Quiet)
Canberra 6 (Quiet)
Hobart 4 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 06 Aug : A
Fredericksburg 11
Planetary 12
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 05 Aug : A K
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 6 2222 2222
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
07 Aug 6 Quiet
08 Aug 4 Quiet
09 Aug 5 Quiet
COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity raised to Unsettled levels at 06-09UT
mid latitudes, due to the increase in the solar wind speed to
550km/sec from a recurrent coronal hole and the strong southwards
(-15nT) turning in the IMF Bz. Some stations (Townsville, Culgoora)
recorded Active levels in this period. Polar latitudes reached
Active levels near the auroral oval at the onset of the disturbance
and Major Storm levels at 18-21UT due to the resultant substorm.
Vsw is still elevated ~500 km/sec but should return to normal
levels during 7th August UT day and conditions which are currently
Unsettled to Quiet should return to Quiet.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
06 Aug Normal Normal Normal-poor
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
07 Aug Normal Normal Normal
08 Aug Normal Normal Normal
09 Aug Normal Normal Normal
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
06 Aug 6
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Enhanced by 30% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for August: 1
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
07 Aug 5 Near predicted monthly values
08 Aug 5 Near predicted monthly values
09 Aug 3 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: MUFs were slightly elevated over the local night in
southern parts of Aus/NZ regions due to Unsettled geomagnetic
activity from a recurrent coronal hole. Spread-F was observed
pre-dwn at northern stations (Darwin, Brisbane, Learmonth) and
pre-dusk Brisbane, and daytime afternoon at Niue. At southern
latitudes Hobart observed spread-F from midnight to dawn. Es
was observed at Darwin post-dusk, Canberra near midnight and
Cocos Is at dusk and pre-dawn.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 05 Aug
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.8E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 2.0E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 6.70E+05 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A1.0
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 05 Aug
Speed: 376 km/sec Density: 9.6 p/cc Temp: 27700 K Bz: 6 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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IPS Radio and Space Services email: asfc at ips.gov.au
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