[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 19 April 09

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 19/2330Z APRIL 2009 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 19 APRIL AND FORECAST FOR 20 APRIL - 22 APRIL
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 19 Apr:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 19 Apr:  70/5

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             20 Apr             21 Apr             22 Apr
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    70/5               70/5               70/5
COMMENT: Solar activity remained at very low levels on 
19 April. The visible solar disk remains spotless. The 
solar wind speed stayed between 440 and 470 km/s almost 
the whole day today. The Bz components stayed slightly 
positive (upto around +3nT) for most parts of the UT day 
today. Solar wind stream may weaken over the next 24 hours 
due to diminishing of a coronal hole effect. Solar activity 
is expected to stay at very low levels for the next 3 days. 
-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 19 Apr: Quiet 

Estimated Indices 19 Apr :  A   K           
   Australian Region       4   22211111
      Darwin               3   22200011
      Townsville           7   22222222
      Learmonth            3   22201011
      Camden               -   --------
      Canberra             2   22001001
      Hobart               2   22101001
      Casey(Ant)           9   24322111
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 19 Apr : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice_Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Camden              NA
      Gnangara            17   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Hobart               4   (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 19 Apr : A 
           Fredericksburg         5
           Planetary              5                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 18 Apr :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         8
           Planetary              8   2331 2212     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
20 Apr     6    Quiet 
21 Apr     7    Quiet 
22 Apr     6    Quiet 
COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity is expected to stay mostly at 
quiet levels for the next three days. 
-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
19 Apr      Normal         Normal         Normal         
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
20 Apr      Normal         Normal         Normal
21 Apr      Normal         Normal         Normal
22 Apr      Normal         Normal         Normal
COMMENT: HF conditions are expected to stay mostly normal 
on most locations for the next three days. 
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY

Date   T index
19 Apr     1

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Predicted Monthly T index for April:   3

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
20 Apr     1    Near predicted monthly values 
21 Apr     1    Near predicted monthly values 
22 Apr     1    Near predicted monthly values 
COMMENT: HF conditions are exptected to stay mostly normal 
around Aus/NZ regions for the next three days. 
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 18 Apr
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   3.8E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.9E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.40E+06   (normal fluence)   
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A1.0

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 18 Apr
Speed: 489 km/sec  Density:    0.6 p/cc  Temp:   116000 K  Bz:   0 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------


IPS Radio and Space Services        email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au 
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

IMPORTANT: This e-mail, including any attachments, may contain,
confidential or copyright information.  The views expressed in 
this message are those of the individual sender, unless 
specifically stated to be the views of IPS.  If you are not 
the intended recipient, please contact the sender immediately 
and delete all copies of this e-mail and attachments. 
Occasionally IPS sends email promoting IPS products and 
services to its mailing list customers. If you do not wish to 
receive this promotional material please email 
no-spam at ips.gov.au with the subject header:UNSUBSCRIBE"