[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 18 April 09

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 18/2330Z APRIL 2009 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 18 APRIL AND FORECAST FOR 19 APRIL - 21 APRIL
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 18 Apr:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 18 Apr:  70/5

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             19 Apr             20 Apr             21 Apr
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    70/5               70/5               70/5

COMMENT: The visible solar disk remains spotless. The solar wind 
speed increased from 440 to 540 km/s over the last 24 hours and 
is presently 520 km/s. 

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 18 Apr: Quiet to Unsettled 

Estimated Indices 18 Apr :  A   K           
   Australian Region       7   23222221
      Darwin               6   23212211
      Townsville           9   23322222
      Learmonth            9   23322321
      Canberra             4   12211112
      Hobart               7   23221221
      Casey(Ant)          10   34232211
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 18 Apr : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice_Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gnangara             0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Hobart               2   (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 18 Apr : A 
           Fredericksburg         7
           Planetary              7                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 17 Apr :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         4
           Planetary              5   2001 2112     

2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
19 Apr     8    Quiet to Unsettled 
20 Apr     8    Quiet to Unsettled 
21 Apr     8    Quiet to Unsettled 

COMMENT: Due to slightly elevated solar wind speed expect quiet 
to unsettled geomagnetic conditions for the next three days. During 
03-05 UT 18 April the Bz component of the interplanetary magnetic 
field reached -5nT which resulted in reconnection and a short 
period of active levels at high latitudes. 

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
18 Apr      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair    
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
19 Apr      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
20 Apr      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
21 Apr      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair

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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY

Date   T index
18 Apr     3

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Depressed by 20% during local day. 
      Near predicted monthly values during local night
      when ionogram trace visible.

Predicted Monthly T index for April:   3

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
19 Apr     5    near predicted monthly values 
20 Apr     5    Near predicted monthly values 
21 Apr     5    Near predicted monthly values 

COMMENT: Noted sporadic E late in the local day at Niue. Isolated 
cases of sporadic E at Cocos Island and Hobart showed blanketing 
sporadic E between 11-18 UT. 
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 17 Apr
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   6.3E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.9E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 6.20E+06   (normal fluence)   
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A1.0

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 17 Apr
Speed: 435 km/sec  Density:    1.4 p/cc  Temp:   108000 K  Bz:   2 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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IPS Radio and Space Services        email: asfc at ips.gov.au
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