[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 01 April 09
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Thu Apr 2 10:37:45 EST 2009
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 01/2330Z APRIL 2009 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 01 APRIL AND FORECAST FOR 02 APRIL - 04 APRIL
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 01 Apr: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 01 Apr: 71/6
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
02 Apr 03 Apr 04 Apr
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 72/8 72/8 72/8
COMMENT: Solar activity was Very Low over the last 24 hours as
the visible solar disc remains spotless. Solar wind velocity
was ~360km/s over the UT day. Solar activity is expected to remain
at Very Low levels for the next 3 days.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 01 Apr: Quiet
Estimated Indices 01 Apr : A K
Australian Region 3 21110012
Darwin 3 21110012
Townsville 5 22121122
Learmonth 3 21010022
Camden - --------
Canberra 1 10010011
Hobart 1 10020001
Casey(Ant) 5 22211112
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 01 Apr :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice_Springs 0 (Quiet)
Camden NA
Gnangara 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 01 Apr : A
Fredericksburg 2
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 31 Mar : A K
Fredericksburg 2
Planetary 4 0010 2221
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
02 Apr 5 Quiet
03 Apr 8 Quiet to Unsettled
04 Apr 9 Quiet to Unsettled
COMMENT: Quiet geomagnetic conditions observed over the last
24 hours. Similar conditions expected for the next 24 hours,
with Quiet to Unsettled conditions for 03Apr-04Apr.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
01 Apr Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
02 Apr Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
03 Apr Normal-fair Normal Fair-poor
04 Apr Normal-fair Normal Fair-poor
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
01 Apr -2
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Depressed by 45% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day,
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for April: 3
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
02 Apr -5 near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
20%
03 Apr -5 near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
20%
04 Apr -10 depressed 10 to 30%/near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Depressed conditions observed during local night for
Equatorial regions and local day for Northern AUS regions. Mostly
normal conditions for and Southern AUS/NZ regions with enhancements
during local night and disturbed periods for Antarctic regions.
Similar conditions are expected for the next 2 days, with depressed
MUFs of 10%-20% for low to mid latitudes. Depressed conditions
for mid to high latitudes on 04Apr.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 31 Mar
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 5.5E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.9E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 4.90E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A1.0
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 31 Mar
Speed: 393 km/sec Density: 1.5 p/cc Temp: 54000 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
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