[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 31 March 09

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed Apr 1 10:37:16 EST 2009


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 31/2330Z MARCH 2009 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 31 MARCH AND FORECAST FOR 01 APRIL - 03 APRIL
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 31 Mar:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 31 Mar:  71/6


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             01 Apr             02 Apr             03 Apr
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    72/8               72/8               72/8
COMMENT: Solar activity was Very Low over the last 24 hours as 
the visible solar disc remains spotless. Solar wind velocity 
ranged between 380km/s and 420km/s over the UT day. Solar activity 
is expected to remain at Very Low levels over the next 3 days. 




-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 31 Mar: Quiet to Unsettled 

Estimated Indices 31 Mar :  A   K           
   Australian Region       5   22113011
      Darwin               2   11112001
      Townsville           7   22223122
      Learmonth            3   21113000
      Camden               -   --------
      Canberra             2   11012000
      Hobart               3   12113000
      Casey(Ant)           7   23322111
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 31 Mar : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice_Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Camden              NA
      Gnangara             2   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Hobart               0   (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 31 Mar : A 
           Fredericksburg         3
           Planetary              5                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 30 Mar :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         3
           Planetary              4   1100 2111     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
01 Apr     5    Quiet 
02 Apr     5    Quiet 
03 Apr     5    Quiet 
COMMENT: Quiet geomagnetic conditions observed over the last 
24 hours. Similar conditions are expected for the next three 
days. 

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
31 Mar      Normal-fair    Normal-fair    Normal-fair    
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
01 Apr      Normal-fair    Normal-fair    Normal-fair   
02 Apr      Normal-fair    Normal-fair    Normal-fair   
03 Apr      Normal-fair    Normal-fair    Normal-fair   

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
31 Mar    -2

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
      No data available during local day,
      Depressed by 15% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 15% during local day,
      Depressed by 15% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values,
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Predicted Monthly T index for March:   3

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
01 Apr     0    near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to 
                20% 
02 Apr     0    near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to 
                20% 
03 Apr     0    near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to 
                20% 
COMMENT: Depressed conditons observed during local day and night 
for Equatorial/Northern AUS regions over the last 24h hours. 
Mostly normal conditions for and Southern AUS/NZ and Antarctic 
regions. Similar conditions are expected for the next 3 days, 
with possible MUF depressions of 10%-20% for low to mid latitudes. 
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 30 Mar
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   5.1E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.9E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 5.10E+06   (normal fluence)   
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A1.0

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 30 Mar
Speed: 418 km/sec  Density:    2.1 p/cc  Temp:    70800 K  Bz:   1 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------


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