[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 13 October 08
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Tue Oct 14 10:55:36 EST 2008
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 13/2330Z OCTOBER 2008 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 13 OCTOBER AND FORECAST FOR 14 OCTOBER - 16 OCTOBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 13 Oct: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 13 Oct: 71/6
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
14 Oct 15 Oct 16 Oct
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 72/8 73/9 75/13
COMMENT: Sunspot region AR1005 remains the only significant feature
on the visible solar disk. Solar wind speed declined slowly over
the UT day.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 13 Oct: Quiet
Estimated Indices 13 Oct : A K
Australian Region 5 22222111
Darwin 5 22221112
Townsville 8 23222222
Learmonth 7 22222222
Camden 4 12221011
Canberra 6 22231111
Hobart 7 22332111
Casey(Ant) 9 33322221
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 13 Oct :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice_Springs 0 (Quiet)
Camden 4 (Quiet)
Gnangara 22 (Quiet to unsettled)
Canberra 25 (Quiet to unsettled)
Hobart 8 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 13 Oct : A
Fredericksburg 7
Planetary 10
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 12 Oct : A K
Fredericksburg 10
Planetary 13 4333 3223
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
14 Oct 10 Quiet to Unsettled
15 Oct 6 Quiet
16 Oct 7 Quiet
COMMENT: The geomagnetic field was mostly quiet with isolated
unsettled periods at low to mid latitudes and isolated active
periods at high latitudes. Solar wind parameters declined slowly
over the UT day and are expected to continue to decline over
the next day. Expect mostly quiet geomagnetic conditions next
three days.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
13 Oct Normal Normal Normal-Fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
14 Oct Normal Normal Normal-Fair
15 Oct Normal Normal Normal
16 Oct Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: Generally normal HF conditions expected.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
13 Oct -30
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values,
Enhanced by 35% after local dawn.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day,
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Depressed by 25% during local day,
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for October: 2
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
14 Oct -5 Near predicted monthly values
15 Oct 0 Near predicted monthly values
16 Oct 0 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Substantial depressions of 20% observed in HF critical
frequencies observed across Aus/NZ and nearby equatorial regions.
Variable conditions observed at low latitudes. Expect gradual
recovery next three days with continuing variability at low latitudes.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 12 Oct
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 2.5E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.8E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.10E+08 (moderate fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:11%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A1.0
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 12 Oct
Speed: 526 km/sec Density: 1.7 p/cc Temp: 147000 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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