[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 12 October 08

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Mon Oct 13 10:38:49 EST 2008


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 12/2330Z OCTOBER 2008 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 12 OCTOBER AND FORECAST FOR 13 OCTOBER - 15 OCTOBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:** YELLOW **     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 12 Oct:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 12 Oct:  70/5


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             13 Oct             14 Oct             15 Oct
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    72/8               72/8               73/9
COMMENT: Solar activity is at Very Low. The sunspot AR1005 continues 
to move across the disc. AR1005 has beta magnetic configuration 
and polarity associated with the new cycle-24, is rated as Stable 
with a Low chance of flaring. The first small cycle-24 Type III 
radio burst was also observed by IPS Learmonth observatory at 
0649-0650UT. The coronal hole related elavated solar wind speed 
stabilised at 500-550 km/sec but was choppy. The Bz north-south 
component of the IMF was mostly southward during the day, suggesting 
sustained merging with the geomagnetic field, but it's magntudie 
was low, usually less than 5nT. Solar wind speed is expected 
to decline during the 13th UT day. 




-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 12 Oct: Quiet to Unsettled 

Estimated Indices 12 Oct :  A   K           
   Australian Region      11   23333222
      Darwin               7   22223212
      Townsville          13   3333-2--
      Learmonth           12   22333323
      Camden               9   22233222
      Canberra            10   22333222
      Hobart              10   23333212
      Casey(Ant)          14   34333223
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 12 Oct : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            3   (Quiet)
      Alice_Springs        3   (Quiet)
      Camden              12   (Quiet)
      Gnangara            45   (Unsettled)
      Canberra            21   (Quiet to unsettled)
      Hobart               9   (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 12 Oct : A 
           Fredericksburg        15
           Planetary             20                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 11 Oct :  A   K
           Fredericksburg        20
           Planetary             37   1234 6752     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
13 Oct    18    Unsettled 
14 Oct     7    Mostly quiet, isolated unsettled periods possible. 
15 Oct     6    Quiet 
COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity declined today from yesterdays 
enhancements after the initial impact of the high speed solar 
wind (Vsw) stream from a recurrent coronal hole. The Vsw stabilised 
at only moderately high levels for the UT day, but the geomagnetic 
field only responded with Quiet to Unsettled levels at mid-latitudes. 
Polar latitudes were Unsettled to Active or Minor Storm later 
in the UT day as the effects of sustained merging with the solar 
magnetic field (IMF) took hold. Activity is expected to decline 
across the 13th October as the Vsw declines. 

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
12 Oct      Normal-fair    Normal         Normal-fair    
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
13 Oct      Normal         Normal-Fair    Fair
14 Oct      Normal         Normal         Normal
15 Oct      Normal         Normal         Normal
COMMENT: Expect recovery from yesterdays geomagnetic disturbance. 
Delayed effects may be observed at equatorial latitudes for a 
couple of days. 
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
12 Oct   -24

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Depressed by 20% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 20% during local day,
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
      Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Depressed by 20% during local day,
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
      Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Predicted Monthly T index for October:   2

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
13 Oct   -12    10 to 20% below predicted monthly values 
14 Oct    -5    5 to 15% below predicted monthly values 
15 Oct     0    0 to 10% below predicted monthly values 
COMMENT: IPS HF Communications Warning 10 was issued on 11 October 
and is current for interval 12-13 October. Substantial depressions 
of 20% observed in HF critical frequencies observed across Aus/NZ 
and nearby equatorial regions due to geomagnetic disturbance 
from coronal hole high-spedd sola-wind. Expect solar wind speed 
and geomag levels to decline over the next two days and the ionosphere

recover to near predicted monthly average. Some extra EUV flux 
from sunspot region AR1005 may aid recovery. 
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 11 Oct
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   4.0E+06
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.9E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.20E+06   (normal fluence)   
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A1.0

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 11 Oct
Speed: 476 km/sec  Density:    5.2 p/cc  Temp:   123000 K  Bz:  -2 nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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