[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 21 November 08

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 21/2330Z NOVEMBER 2008 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 21 NOVEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 22 NOVEMBER - 24 NOVEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: ** YELLOW **
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 21 Nov:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 21 Nov:  69/3

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             22 Nov             23 Nov             24 Nov
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    70/5               70/5               70/5

COMMENT: Very low solar activity over the last 24 hours. The 
solar wind speed is slightly below normal levels and is expected 
to remain so for the next three days. 

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 21 Nov: Quiet 

Estimated Indices 21 Nov :  A   K           
   Australian Region       2   11110011
      Darwin               2   11110002
      Townsville           6   22221122
      Learmonth            2   11111001
      Camden               1   11100011
      Canberra             1   10110010
      Hobart               1   11110000
      Casey(Ant)           8   33321112
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 21 Nov : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice_Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Camden               4   (Quiet)
      Gnangara             0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Hobart               2   (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 21 Nov : A 
           Fredericksburg         1
           Planetary              5                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 20 Nov :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         1
           Planetary              2   0100 0111     

2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
22 Nov     4    Quiet 
23 Nov     4    Quiet 
24 Nov     6    Quiet 

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
21 Nov      Normal         Normal         Normal         
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
22 Nov      Normal         Normal         Normal
23 Nov      Normal         Normal         Normal
24 Nov      Normal         Normal         Normal

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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY

Date   T index
21 Nov   -34

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
      Depressed by 15% during local day,
      Depressed by 25% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Depressed by 30% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Depressed by 15% during local day,
      Depressed by 15% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Predicted Monthly T index for November:   3

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
22 Nov   -30    near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to 
                30% 
23 Nov   -30    near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to 
                30% 
24 Nov   -30    near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to 
                30% 
COMMENT: IPS HF Communications Warning 16 was issued on 21 November 
and is current for interval 21-23 November. Depressed conditions 
expected for equatorial and north Australian regions, probable 
cause is very low solar activity. 
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 20 Nov
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   6.9E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  2.0E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.50E+06   (normal fluence)   
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 0%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A1.0

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 20 Nov
Speed: 293 km/sec  Density:    1.9 p/cc  Temp:    12900 K  Bz:   1 nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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