[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 20 November 08

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SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 20/2330Z NOVEMBER 2008 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 20 NOVEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 21 NOVEMBER - 23 NOVEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: ** YELLOW **
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 20 Nov:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 20 Nov:  70/5

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             21 Nov             22 Nov             23 Nov
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    70/5               70/5               70/5

COMMENT: Very low solar activity over the last 24 hours. The 
solar wind speed is slightly below normal levels and is expected 
to remain so for the next three days. 

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 20 Nov: Quiet 

Estimated Indices 20 Nov :  A   K           
   Australian Region       3   11101112
      Darwin               3   11101112
      Townsville           5   12112222
      Learmonth            3   21011012
      Camden               1   11001011
      Canberra             1   11001011
      Hobart               1   11001011
      Casey(Ant)           5   22211122
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 20 Nov : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice_Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Camden               0   (Quiet)
      Gnangara             0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Hobart               0   (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 20 Nov : A 
           Fredericksburg         1
           Planetary              5                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 19 Nov :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         1
           Planetary              1   0000 0110     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
21 Nov     4    Quiet 
22 Nov     4    Quiet 
23 Nov     4    Quiet 

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
20 Nov      Normal         Normal         Normal         
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
21 Nov      Normal         Normal         Normal
22 Nov      Normal         Normal         Normal
23 Nov      Normal         Normal         Normal

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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY

Date   T index
20 Nov   -40

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Depressed by 35% during local night.
      Depressed by 25% after local dawn.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 30% during local day,
      Depressed by 30% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Depressed by 15% during local day,
      Depressed by 15% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Predicted Monthly T index for November:   3

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
21 Nov   -30    near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to 
                30% 
22 Nov   -30    near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to 
                30% 
23 Nov   -30    near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to 
                30% 

COMMENT: Depressed conditions expected for equatorial and north 
Australian regions, probable cause is very low solar activity. 
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 19 Nov
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   5.0E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.9E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.20E+06   (normal fluence)   
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 0%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A1.0

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 19 Nov
Speed: 312 km/sec  Density:    0.8 p/cc  Temp:    18400 K  Bz:   0 nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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