[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 10 November 08
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Tue Nov 11 10:41:35 EST 2008
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 10/2330Z NOVEMBER 2008 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 10 NOVEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 11 NOVEMBER - 13 NOVEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: ** YELLOW **
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 10 Nov: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 10 Nov: 69/3
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
11 Nov 12 Nov 13 Nov
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 70/5 70/5 70/5
COMMENT: Very Low solar activity over the last 24 hours. The
solar wind speed has decreased again to be ~400km/s at the time
of this report. Bz, the north/south component of interplanetary
magnetic field ranged between +/-2nT over the UT day. Solar
activity is expected to remain very low for the next 3 days.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 10 Nov: Quiet
Estimated Indices 10 Nov : A K
Australian Region 4 11112211
Darwin 4 11111212
Townsville 7 22222222
Learmonth 2 10111201
Camden 3 11112101
Canberra 3 11112101
Hobart 3 11112101
Casey(Ant) 8 23322212
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 10 Nov :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice_Springs NA
Camden 0 (Quiet)
Gnangara 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 10 Nov : A
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 09 Nov : A K
Fredericksburg 10
Planetary 12 4332 1122
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
11 Nov 6 Quiet
12 Nov 6 Quiet
13 Nov 6 Quiet
COMMENT: Quiet conditions observed over the last 24 hours. Quiet
conditions expected for the next three days, with posible isolated
periods of activity at high latitudes.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
10 Nov Fair-normal Fair-normal Fair-normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
11 Nov Fair-normal Fair-normal Fair-normal
12 Nov Fair-normal Fair-normal Fair-normal
13 Nov Fair-normal Fair-normal Fair-normal
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
10 Nov -35
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Depressed by 25% during local day,
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for November: 3
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
11 Nov -30 near predicted monthly values/depressed 20 to
30%
12 Nov -30 near predicted monthly values/depressed 20 to
30%
13 Nov -25 near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
20%
COMMENT: Depressed conditions observed during local night for
Northern Australia and Equatorial regions. Southern Australia
and NZ regions experienced depressions of 25% during local day
and night. Mostly normal conditions for Antarctic regions. Depressed
conditions are expected for the next 3 days for all regions.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 09 Nov
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.2E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.9E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 7.00E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 8%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A1.0
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 09 Nov
Speed: 538 km/sec Density: 2.2 p/cc Temp: 79200 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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