[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 09 November 08
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Mon Nov 10 10:29:05 EST 2008
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 09/2330Z NOVEMBER 2008 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 09 NOVEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 10 NOVEMBER - 12 NOVEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: ** YELLOW **
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 09 Nov: Very low
Flares: None
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 09 Nov: 68/2
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
10 Nov 11 Nov 12 Nov
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 68/2 68/2 68/2
COMMENT: The solar wind speed has decreased from about 585 to
460 km/s over the past 24 hours. The interplanetary magnetic
field Bz component fluctuated between +/- 5nT. The visible disk
is spotless.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 09 Nov: Quiet to unsettled
with active levels at high latitudes.
Estimated Indices 09 Nov : A K
Australian Region 9 33231222
Darwin 8 32231222
Townsville 11 33232223
Learmonth 9 32232222
Camden 8 32231222
Canberra 9 33231222
Hobart 9 33231212
Casey(Ant) 16 44432223
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 09 Nov :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice_Springs NA
Camden 2 (Quiet)
Gnangara 2 (Quiet)
Canberra 2 (Quiet)
Hobart 5 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 09 Nov : A
Fredericksburg 12
Planetary 12
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 08 Nov : A K
Fredericksburg 11
Planetary 14 4334 3111
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
10 Nov 5 Quiet
11 Nov 8 Quiet to unsettled
12 Nov 5 Quiet
COMMENT: Isolated periods of activity still possible at high
latitudes.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
09 Nov Fair-normal Fair-normal Fair-normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
10 Nov Normal Normal Normal
11 Nov Normal Normal Normal-Fair
12 Nov Normal Normal Normal
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
09 Nov -16
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
Near predicted monthly values at Vanimo with
enhancements to 50% 17-19 UT. Near predicted monthly
values to 45% enhanced at Niue with depressions to 30%
19-23 UT.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values with depressions to 45%
mostly 10-21 UT.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values with depressions to 30%
mostly 09-21 UT.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values to 30% depressed.
Predicted Monthly T index for November: 3
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
10 Nov -20 Near predicted monthly values with depressions
to 40% possible at times.
11 Nov -15 Near predicted monthly values with depressions
to 30% possible at times.
12 Nov -15 Near predicted monthly values with depressions
to 30% possible at times.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 08 Nov
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 3.7E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.8E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.10E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 2%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A1.0
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 08 Nov
Speed: 561 km/sec Density: 2.1 p/cc Temp: 148000 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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