[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 15 May 08

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 15/2330Z MAY 2008 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 15 MAY AND FORECAST FOR 16 MAY - 18 MAY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 15 May:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 15 May:  71/6

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             16 May             17 May             18 May
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    70/5               70/5               70/5

COMMENT: No spots on the visible solar disk at this time, however, 
there are a few possible emerging flux regions in the eastern 
hemisphere. 

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 15 May: Quiet 

Estimated Indices 15 May :  A   K           
   Australian Region       4   12111112
      Darwin               4   22111112
      Townsville           6   22222122
      Learmonth            3   12111012
      Camden               2   11110002
      Canberra             1   11100001
      Hobart               3   11------
      Casey(Ant)           4   22211111
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 15 May : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice_Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Culgoora             0   (Quiet)
      Camden               0   (Quiet)
      Gnangara             0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Hobart               0   (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 15 May : A 
           Fredericksburg         3
           Planetary              5                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 14 May :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         1
           Planetary              3   1100 1011     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
16 May     4    Quiet 
17 May     4    Quiet 
18 May     4    Quiet 

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
15 May      Normal         Normal         Normal         
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
16 May      Normal         Normal         Normal
17 May      Normal         Normal         Normal
18 May      Normal         Normal         Normal

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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY

Date   T index
15 May     7

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 35% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Enhanced by 35% over the UT day.

Predicted Monthly T index for May:   6

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
16 May     8    Near predicted monthly values 
17 May     8    Near predicted monthly values 
18 May     8    Near predicted monthly values 

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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 14 May
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   2.1E+06
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.8E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 5.00E+07   (normal fluence)   
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 7%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A1.0

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 14 May
Speed: 335 km/sec  Density:    1.6 p/cc  Temp:    55700 K  Bz:   0 nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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