[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 14 May 08

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 14/2330Z MAY 2008 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 14 MAY AND FORECAST FOR 15 MAY - 17 MAY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 14 May:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 14 May:  69/3

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             15 May             16 May             17 May
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    70/5               70/5               70/5

COMMENT: Solar activity remains very low. Solar wind velocity 
steadily declined from 360 to 320 km/s and is expected to remain 
around this level for the next several days. The Bz component 
of the interplanetary magnetic field fluctuated between +/-2nT. 
No spots presently visible on the solar disk at this time. 

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 14 May: Quiet 

Estimated Indices 14 May :  A   K           
   Australian Region       3   11111111
      Darwin               3   21111111
      Townsville           7   22222222
      Learmonth            3   22020010
      Camden               1   11010001
      Canberra             0   01010000
      Hobart               3   11111121
      Casey(Ant)           4   12121111
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 14 May : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice_Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Culgoora             0   (Quiet)
      Camden               0   (Quiet)
      Gnangara             0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             2   (Quiet)
      Hobart               0   (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 14 May : A 
           Fredericksburg         3
           Planetary              5                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 13 May :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         3
           Planetary              4   2200 1211     

2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
15 May     4    Quiet 
16 May     4    Quiet 
17 May     4    Quiet 

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
14 May      Normal         Normal         Normal         
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
15 May      Normal         Normal         Normal
16 May      Normal         Normal         Normal
17 May      Normal         Normal         Normal

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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY

Date   T index
14 May     4

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
      Depressed by 10-20% during the UT day.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 15% during local day,
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 25% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Enhanced by 30% over the UT day.

Predicted Monthly T index for May:   6

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
15 May     5    Near predicted monthly values 
16 May     5    Near predicted monthly values 
17 May     5    Near predicted monthly values 

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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 13 May
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   1.9E+06
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.7E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 5.20E+07   (normal fluence)   
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 7%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A1.0

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 13 May
Speed: 349 km/sec  Density:    0.6 p/cc  Temp:    48100 K  Bz:   1 nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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