[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 12 May 08
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Tue May 13 09:55:28 EST 2008
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 12/2330Z MAY 2008 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 12 MAY AND FORECAST FOR 13 MAY - 15 MAY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 12 May: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 12 May: 68/2
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
13 May 14 May 15 May
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 70/5 70/5 70/5
COMMENT: Solar activity remains very low. Solar wind velocity
is steady at 320 km/s. Due to an expected solar sector boundary
crossing there may be a bump in the solar wind speed increasing
to 600km/s mid way through the UT day and then steadily decreasing
again. The IMF Bz component of the interplanetary magnetic field
fluctuated between +/-2 nT. No spots presently visible on the
solar disk at this time, however there is a active region on
the east limb rotating onto the solar disk that GOES 10 shows
to have likely caused several low level xray flares. As this
region rotates onto the earthside of the sun there is a slight
chance for a C-class xray flare.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 12 May: Quiet
Estimated Indices 12 May : A K
Australian Region 3 11111111
Darwin 4 21111112
Townsville 6 22222122
Learmonth 3 11111111
Camden 1 01101001
Canberra 2 11111001
Hobart 3 11112111
Casey(Ant) 4 22211111
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 12 May :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice_Springs 0 (Quiet)
Culgoora 0 (Quiet)
Camden 5 (Quiet)
Gnangara NA
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 12 May : A
Fredericksburg 3
Planetary 3
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 11 May : A K
Fredericksburg 3
Planetary 3 2100 1121
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
13 May 14 Unsettled to Active
14 May 8 Quiet to Unsettled
15 May 6 Quiet
COMMENT: There may be isolated periods of active levels today
only due to a solar sector boundry crossing mid way though the
UT day.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
12 May Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
13 May Normal Normal Normal-Fair
14 May Normal Normal Normal-Fair
15 May Normal Normal Normal
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
12 May 10
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values,
Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day,
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Enhanced by 40% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Enhanced by 75% over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for May: 6
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
13 May 5 Near predicted monthly values
14 May 5 Near predicted monthly values
15 May 5 Near predicted monthly values
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 11 May
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.9E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.8E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.00E+08 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:10%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A1.0
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 11 May
Speed: 357 km/sec Density: 0.9 p/cc Temp: 48600 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
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