[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 11 May 08

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 11/2330Z MAY 2008 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 11 MAY AND FORECAST FOR 12 MAY - 14 MAY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 11 May:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 11 May:  68/2


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             12 May             13 May             14 May
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    70/5               70/5               70/5

COMMENT: Solar activity remains very low. Solar wind velocity 
continued to decrease from 370 km/s to 320km/s. IMF Bz component 
of the interplanetary magnetic field fluctuated between +5/-3 
nT. No spots presently visible on the solar disk at this time. 

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 11 May: Quiet 

Estimated Indices 11 May :  A   K           
   Australian Region       4   22112021
      Darwin               5   22112--2
      Townsville           8   22223--2
      Learmonth            5   22112122
      Camden               3   11111021
      Canberra             3   11111021
      Hobart               3   21111021
      Casey(Ant)           5   22211121
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 11 May : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice_Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Culgoora             0   (Quiet)
      Camden               0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Hobart               0   (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 11 May : A 
           Fredericksburg         4
           Planetary              5                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 10 May :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         4
           Planetary              5   1211 1112     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
12 May     6    Quiet 
13 May     8    Quiet to Unsettled 
14 May     8    Quiet to Unsettled 

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
11 May      Normal         Normal         Normal         
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
12 May      Normal         Normal         Normal
13 May      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
14 May      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair

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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY

Date   T index
11 May     6

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 15% during local day,
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 30% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Enhanced by 30% over the UT day.

Predicted Monthly T index for May:   6

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
12 May     5    Near predicted monthly values 
13 May     5    Near predicted monthly values 
14 May     5    Near predicted monthly values 

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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 10 May
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   2.3E+06
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.8E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.90E+08   (moderate fluence)   
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:15%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A1.0

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 10 May
Speed: 373 km/sec  Density:    2.1 p/cc  Temp:    53600 K  Bz:   0 nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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