[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 01 May 08
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri May 2 09:44:01 EST 2008
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 01/2330Z MAY 2008 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 01 MAY AND FORECAST FOR 02 MAY - 04 MAY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 01 May: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 01 May: 69/3
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
02 May 03 May 04 May
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 70/5 70/5 70/5
COMMENT: Solar activity remains very low. The anticipated coronal
hole wind stream has not yet eventuated.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 01 May: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 01 May : A K
Australian Region 6 12211223
Darwin 5 22111222
Townsville 8 22222223
Learmonth 6 12211223
Camden 3 11100113
Canberra 4 11100223
Hobart 5 11101223
Casey(Ant) 9 23311223
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 01 May :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 2 (Quiet)
Canberra 17 (Quiet)
Hobart 40 (Quiet to unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 01 May : A
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 8
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 30 Apr : A K
Fredericksburg 4
Planetary 9 1001 1352
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
02 May 15 Unsettled to Active
03 May 10 Quiet to Unsettled
04 May 8 Quiet to Unsettled
COMMENT: Following the solar wind shock observed at 30/15UT,
the geomagnetic field returned to generally quiet conditions
at low to mid latitudes, with unsettled conditions at high latitudes
over most of the UT day. The anticipated coronal hole wind stream
has not yet appeared. After 22UT there was a moderate disturbance
in the IMF Bz component resulting in unsettled to storm conditions.
This may be evidence of a gradual solar sector boundary crossing.
This disturbance is likely to be transitory. Expect unsettled
conditions on day one due to the current disturbance and possible
arrival of the anticipated coronal hole wind stream. Geomagnetic
activity should decline days two and three.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
01 May Normal Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
02 May Normal Normal Normal-Fair
03 May Normal Normal Normal-Fair
04 May Normal Normal Normal-Fair
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
01 May 3
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values,
Depressed by 25% after local dawn.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Enhanced by 35% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Variable localised enhancemants/disturbances.
Predicted Monthly T index for May: 7
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
02 May 5 Near predicted monthly values
03 May 10 Near predicted monthly values
04 May 10 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Expect mostly normal ionospheric conditions low to mid
latitudes. Generally weak night-time ionosphere observed S
Aus/Antarctic regions. Disturbed periods possible 02 - 03 May
mainly at high latitudes in association with elevated
geomagnetic activity.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 30 Apr
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.2E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.7E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.50E+08 (moderate fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:17%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A1.0
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 30 Apr
Speed: 406 km/sec Density: 3.4 p/cc Temp: 52400 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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