[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 30 April 08
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Thu May 1 09:29:17 EST 2008
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 30/2330Z APRIL 2008 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 30 APRIL AND FORECAST FOR 01 MAY - 03 MAY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 30 Apr: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 30 Apr: 67/0
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
01 May 02 May 03 May
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 70/5 70/5 70/5
COMMENT: Solar activity remains very low. A weak solar wind shock
was observed at 15UT, possibly resulting from the CME of 26 Apr.
A small coronal hole should move into geoeffective position by
day one of the forecast period.
A possible weak shock was observed in the solar wind at 1459UT
on 30 Apr.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 30 Apr: Quiet to Active
Estimated Indices 30 Apr : A K
Australian Region 7 11111341
Darwin 8 11111342
Townsville 10 22222342
Learmonth 10 01112351
Camden 7 11011341
Canberra 7 11011341
Hobart 6 00111341
Casey(Ant) 11 23221342
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 30 Apr :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 4 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 30 Apr : A
Fredericksburg 10
Planetary 10
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 29 Apr : A K
Fredericksburg 4
Planetary 8 3311 1321
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
01 May 15 Unsettled to Active
02 May 12 Unsettled
03 May 10 Quiet to Unsettled
COMMENT: The geomagnetic field was mostly quiet until about 1600UT.
A weak solar wind shock passage occurred resulting in unsettled
to active geomagnetic conditions for the remainder of the UT
day. The shock was possibly a consequence of the CME observed
on 26 Apr. The disturbance is likely to be transitory. A small
coronal hole should also move into geoeffective position by day
one of the forecast period. Mostly unsettled conditions expected
for the next three days with isolated active periods 01-02 May.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
30 Apr Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
01 May Normal Normal Normal-Fair
02 May Normal Normal Normal-Fair
03 May Normal Normal Normal-Fair
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
30 Apr 6
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Variable conditions during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Variable localised enhancements and disturbances.
Predicted Monthly T index for April: 6
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
01 May 5 Near predicted monthly values
02 May 10 Near predicted monthly values
03 May 10 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Expect mostly normal ionospheric conditions. Disturbed
periods possible 01 - 02 May mainly at high latitudes in association
with elevated geomagnetic activity.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 29 Apr
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 6.7E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.7E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.30E+08 (moderate fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:16%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A1.0
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 29 Apr
Speed: 435 km/sec Density: 1.4 p/cc Temp: 58900 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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