[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 22 June 08
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Mon Jun 23 09:07:47 EST 2008
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 22/2330Z JUNE 2008 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 22 JUNE AND FORECAST FOR 23 JUNE - 25 JUNE
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 22 Jun: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 22 Jun: 65/0
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
23 Jun 24 Jun 25 Jun
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 65/0 65/0 65/0
COMMENT: Solar activity was Very Low over the last 24 hours,
expected to continue next 3 days. Solar wind / Interplanetary
Magnetic Field (IMF) conditions were quiet. A weak recurrent
coronal hole is expected to move into geoeffective position 24
Jun.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 22 Jun: Quiet
Estimated Indices 22 Jun : A K
Australian Region 2 11111001
Darwin 3 21011111
Townsville 8 22223--2
Learmonth 1 11111000
Camden 1 11011000
Canberra 1 11010000
Hobart 2 11111011
Casey(Ant) 2 21111100
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 22 Jun :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice_Springs 0 (Quiet)
Culgoora 0 (Quiet)
Camden 8 (Quiet)
Gnangara 24 (Quiet to unsettled)
Canberra 3 (Quiet)
Hobart 2 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 22 Jun : A
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 21 Jun : A K
Fredericksburg 4
Planetary 5 2111 1112
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
23 Jun 3 Quiet
24 Jun 8 Quiet to Unsettled
25 Jun 8 Quiet to Unsettled
COMMENT: Geomagnetic conditions were Quiet over the last 24 hours,
expected to continue today (23 Jun). A recurrent coronal hole
wind stream is expected to produce Quiet-Unsettled conditions
days 2-3 (24-25 Jun).
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
22 Jun Normal Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
23 Jun Normal Normal Normal-fair
24 Jun Normal Normal-fair Fair
25 Jun Normal Normal-fair Fair
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
22 Jun -0
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day,
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day,
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values.
Predicted Monthly T index for June: 5
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
23 Jun -5 near predicted monthly values
24 Jun 0 near predicted monthly values
25 Jun 0 near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: The Australian ionosphere was mostly normal over the
UT day with the exception of some minor MUF depressions in the
Equatorial/N.Aus region during local day. MUFs in the
S.Aus/NZ/Antarctic regions were mostly near predicted monthly
values. HF conditions were normal. Expect mostly normal HF
conditions with MUFs near predicted monthly values today
(23 Jun). Some degraded HF conditions possible 24 Jun.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 21 Jun
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 5.8E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.7E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 4.30E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 6%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A1.0
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 21 Jun
Speed: 507 km/sec Density: 0.5 p/cc Temp: 112000 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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IPS Radio and Space Services email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au
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