[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 21 June 08
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sun Jun 22 09:07:04 EST 2008
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 21/2330Z JUNE 2008 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 21 JUNE AND FORECAST FOR 22 JUNE - 24 JUNE
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 21 Jun: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 21 Jun: 65/0
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
22 Jun 23 Jun 24 Jun
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 65/0 65/0 65/0
COMMENT: Solar activity was Very Low over the last 24 hours,
expected to continue next 3 days.Solar wind / Interplanetary
Magnetic Field (IMF) conditions are relatively quiet.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 21 Jun: Quiet
Estimated Indices 21 Jun : A K
Australian Region 2 12120001
Darwin - --------
Townsville - --------
Learmonth 2 12120001
Camden 2 11120001
Canberra 1 11020000
Hobart 4 11131110
Casey(Ant) 6 23221111
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 21 Jun :
Darwin NA
Townsville NA
Learmonth 2 (Quiet)
Alice_Springs 0 (Quiet)
Culgoora 4 (Quiet)
Camden 26 (Quiet to unsettled)
Gnangara NA
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 32 (Quiet to unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 21 Jun : A
Fredericksburg 7
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 20 Jun : A K
Fredericksburg 8
Planetary 11 3432 1223
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
22 Jun 3 Quiet
23 Jun 3 Quiet
24 Jun 8 Quiet to Unsettled
COMMENT: Geomagnetic conditions were Quiet over the last 24 hours,
expected to continue next 2 days (22-23 Jun). A weak coronal
hole wind stream may produce Quiet- Unsettled conditions day
3 (24 Jun).
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
21 Jun Normal Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
22 Jun Normal Normal Normal-fair
23 Jun Normal Normal Normal-fair
24 Jun Normal Normal Normal-fair
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
21 Jun -2
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day,
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values,
Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values,
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for June: 5
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
22 Jun -5 near predicted monthly values
23 Jun -5 near predicted monthly values
24 Jun 5 near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: With the exception of some minor MUF depressions in
the Equatorial/N.Aus region, the Australian ionosphere was mostly
normal over the UT day. MUFs in the S.Aus/NZ/Antarctic regions
were mostly near predicted monthly values. HF conditions were
normal. Expect mostly normal HF conditions with MUFs mostly near
predicted monthly values next 2 days (22-23 Jun). Some degraded
HF conditions possible day 3 (24 Jun).
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 20 Jun
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.1E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.7E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.70E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 5%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A1.0
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 20 Jun
Speed: 562 km/sec Density: 0.9 p/cc Temp: 131000 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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IPS Radio and Space Services email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au
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