[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 10 July 08

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri Jul 11 09:33:42 EST 2008


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 10/2330Z JULY 2008 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 10 JULY AND FORECAST FOR 11 JULY - 13 JULY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 10 Jul:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 10 Jul:  65/0


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             11 Jul             12 Jul             13 Jul
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    66/0               66/0               66/0
COMMENT: Solar activity remained at very low levels over the 
last 24 hours as there is currently no active regions on disc. 
The solar wind speed remained unchanged at ~330km/s. The north-south 
component of the interplanetary magnetic field (Bz) ranged between 
+/-5nT over the UT day. An expected increase in the solar wind 
parameters is due in the next 24 hours with the arrival of a 
high speed solar wind stream from a geoeffective coronal hole. 
Solar activity is expected to remain at very low levels for the 
next 3 days. 




-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 10 Jul: Quiet 

Estimated Indices 10 Jul :  A   K           
   Australian Region       3   11111111
      Darwin               2   11011011
      Townsville           6   21222222
      Learmonth            5   22211121
      Camden               2   10011002
      Canberra             1   10011000
      Hobart               1   00011100
      Casey(Ant)           3   11111121
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 10 Jul : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           5   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            6   (Quiet)
      Alice_Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Culgoora             0   (Quiet)
      Camden               7   (Quiet)
      Gnangara             0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Hobart               0   (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 10 Jul : A 
           Fredericksburg         3
           Planetary              5                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 09 Jul :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         3
           Planetary              4   1101 1012     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
11 Jul    15    Unsettled to Active 
12 Jul    13    Unsettled to Active 
13 Jul     9    Quiet to Unsettled 
COMMENT: Quiet geomagnetic conditions observed over the last 
24 hours. The high speed solar wind stream from the geoeffective 
coronal hole is expected to arrive in the next 24-36 hours which 
will bring Unsettled to Active conditions for 11Jul-12Jul, with 
possible isolated minor storm periods for mid to high latitudes. 
Quiet to Unsettled conditions expected for 13Jul. 

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
10 Jul      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair    
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
11 Jul      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair   
12 Jul      Normal-fair    Normal-fair    Normal-fair   
13 Jul      Normal         Normal-fair    Normal-fair   

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
10 Jul    -3

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values,
   Northern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 15% during local day,
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Enhanced by 45% over the UT day.

Predicted Monthly T index for July:   4

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
11 Jul    -5    near predicted monthly values/depressed 5 to 
                10% 
12 Jul   -10    depressed 10 to 20%/near predicted monthly values 
13 Jul   -10    depressed 10 to 20%/near predicted monthly values 
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF conditions observed during the last 
24 hours. Northern AUS regions experienced depressed MUFs during 
local day. Southern AUS/NZ regions had continued enhanced conditions 
during local night. Mostly normal conditions for Antarctic regions 
with enhancements over the UT day. Similar conditions for each 
region are expected for the next 24 hours. An increase in geomagnetic 
activity is expected in the next 24 hours which will affect MUF's, 
with depressions ~20% possible for Southern AUS/NZ regions and 
disturbed ionospheric conditions for Antarctic regions for
12Jul-13Jul. 
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 09 Jul
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   1.2E+06
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.8E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 5.90E+06   (normal fluence)   
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A1.0

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 09 Jul
Speed: 319 km/sec  Density:    2.2 p/cc  Temp:    39600 K  Bz:   0 nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------


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