[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 09 July 08
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Thu Jul 10 09:54:17 EST 2008
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 09/2330Z JULY 2008 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 09 JULY AND FORECAST FOR 10 JULY - 12 JULY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 09 Jul: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 09 Jul: 66/0
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
10 Jul 11 Jul 12 Jul
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 66/0 66/0 66/0
COMMENT: Solar activity remained at very low levels over the
last 24 hours while the disc remains spotless. The solar wind
speed remained steady at ~320km/s. The north-south component
of the interplanetary magnetic field (Bz) ranged between +/-3nT
over the UT day. Solar activity is expected to remain at very
low levels for the next 3 days.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 09 Jul: Quiet
Estimated Indices 09 Jul : A K
Australian Region 2 11111011
Darwin 3 21111011
Townsville 6 22221122
Learmonth 1 11111000
Camden 1 11010001
Canberra 0 01010000
Hobart 1 01111000
Casey(Ant) 4 12221111
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 09 Jul :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice_Springs 0 (Quiet)
Culgoora 0 (Quiet)
Camden 0 (Quiet)
Gnangara 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 09 Jul : A
Fredericksburg 3
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 08 Jul : A K
Fredericksburg 1
Planetary 2 1000 0112
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
10 Jul 10 Quiet to Unsettled
11 Jul 15 Unsettled to Active
12 Jul 13 Unsettled to Active
COMMENT: Quiet geomagnetic conditions observed over the last
24 hours. Quiet to Unsettled conditions are expected for the
next 24 hours with possible Active periods. An expected solar
sector boundary crossing event is due within this time. Unsettled
to Active conditions for 11Jul-12Jul with possible isolated minor
storm activity due to a recurrent coronal hole.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
09 Jul Normal Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
10 Jul Normal Normal Normal-fair
11 Jul Normal-fair Normal-fair Fair
12 Jul Normal-fair Normal-fair Fair
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
09 Jul -2
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
Depressed by 25% during local day,
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day,
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Enhanced by 25% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Enhanced by 50% over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for July: 4
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
10 Jul -5 near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
20%
11 Jul 0 near predicted monthly values
12 Jul -5 depressed 10 to 20%/near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF conditions observed during the last
24 hours. Northern AUS/Equatorial regions experienced depressed
MUFs during local day. Southern AUS/NZ regions had continued
enhanced conditions during local night. Mostly normal conditions
for Antarctic regions with enhancements over the UT day. These
regional ionospheric conditions are expected to remain unchanged
for the next 24 hours, but with an anticiapted increase in geomagnetic
activity over the next 2 days, MUF depressions ~20% are possible
for Northern AUS and Southern AUS/NZ regions and disturbed ionospheric
conditions for Antarctic regions.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 08 Jul
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.1E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.9E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 5.40E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A1.0
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 08 Jul
Speed: NA km/sec Density: NA p/cc Temp: NA K Bz: NA nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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