[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 25 January 08
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sat Jan 26 10:18:29 EST 2008
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 25/2330Z JANUARY 2008 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 25 JANUARY AND FORECAST FOR 26 JANUARY - 28 JANUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 25 Jan: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 25 Jan: 71/6
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
26 Jan 27 Jan 28 Jan
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 70/5 70/5 70/5
COMMENT: Solar activity continued to stay at very low
levels today as well. Due to a high speed solar wind
stream the solar wind speed increased from 400 km/s to
550 km/s during the first 3 hours of the UT day today
and then remained between 500 and 550 km/s during the
rest of the day. The north-south component of the
interplanetary magnetic field (Bz) stayed close to the
normal value almost the whole day with some minor to
mild fluctuations (upto around +/-5nT) on both sides
of the normal value between 0000UT and 0900UT. Solar
disc remains currently spotless and solar activity is
expected to continue to stay at very low levels for
the next few days.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 25 Jan: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 25 Jan : A K
Australian Region 8 23321122
Darwin 7 32221122
Townsville 11 23332232
Learmonth 10 33321132
Camden 8 23321122
Canberra 8 23321122
Hobart 9 23421122
Casey(Ant) 9 ---32132
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 25 Jan :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 2 (Quiet)
Hobart 29 (Quiet to unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 25 Jan : A
Fredericksburg 10
Planetary 10
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 24 Jan : A K
Fredericksburg 3
Planetary 5 1121 2122
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
26 Jan 6 Mostly quiet, isolated unsettled periods possible.
27 Jan 5 Quiet
28 Jan 5 Quiet
COMMENT: Isolated periods of slightly enhanced geomagnetic
activity levels were observed today at some stations due to
a high speed solar wind stream. The geomagnetic activity is
expected to stay mostly at quiet levels for the next three
days with some possibility of isolated unsettled periods on
26 January as the solar wind speed is still relatively high
around 500 km/s.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
25 Jan Fair-normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
26 Jan Fair-normal Normal Normal
27 Jan Normal Normal Normal
28 Jan Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: Mild to strong sporatic E layers were observed at
several low and mid latitude stations mainly during the
local day time today. Relatively weaker sporadic E-layers
were also observed on high latitudes around the same time.
These Es layers sometimes partly and sometimes fully
blanketed the F-regions and caused communication difficulties
using F-regions. Periods of minor to mild MUF depressions
were observed on low latitudes during the local day today,
possibly due to a weak ionosphere. This behaviour of the
ionosphere may show up at times for the next few days,
otherwise HF conditions are expected to remain mostly
normal on most locations over the next three days.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
25 Jan -8
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day
with periods of depressions,
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 20% during local day,
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day with
periods of degraded conditions.
Predicted Monthly T index for January: 12
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
26 Jan -4 near predicted monthly values/depressed 5%.
27 Jan -3 near predicted monthly values
28 Jan -3 near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Mild to strong sporadic E-layers, that were
observed across many stations in Aus/NZ regions, caused
communication difficulties using F-regions today mainly
during the local day hours. HF conditions are expected to
remain mostly normal across Aus/NZ regions for the next
three days with the possibility of minor to mild depressions
at times on 26 January.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 24 Jan
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 2.9E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.8E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.80E+08 (moderate fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:14%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A1.0
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 24 Jan
Speed: 422 km/sec Density: 4.2 p/cc Temp: 91600 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
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