[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 24 January 08
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri Jan 25 10:30:25 EST 2008
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 24/2330Z JANUARY 2008 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 24 JANUARY AND FORECAST FOR 25 JANUARY - 27 JANUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 24 Jan: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 24 Jan: 71/6
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
25 Jan 26 Jan 27 Jan
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 70/5 70/5 70/5
COMMENT: Solar activity continued to stay at very low
levels today as well. The solar wind speed remained between
400 and 440 km/s for most part of the UT day today. The north
south component of the interplanetary magnetic field (Bz)
stayed close to the normal value almost the whole day. Solar
disc remains currently spotless and solar activity is expected
to continue to stay at very low levels for the next few days.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 24 Jan: Quiet
Estimated Indices 24 Jan : A K
Australian Region 6 22212222
Darwin 5 2-112212
Townsville 9 2-323222
Learmonth 6 -2212222
Camden 5 12212221
Canberra 5 1221222-
Hobart 5 12212211
Casey(Ant) 9 3-322222
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 24 Jan :
Darwin 3 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 17 (Quiet)
Canberra 21 (Quiet to unsettled)
Hobart 13 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 24 Jan : A
Fredericksburg 3
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 23 Jan : A K
Fredericksburg 3
Planetary 3 0010 0112
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
25 Jan 3 Quiet
26 Jan 3 Quiet
27 Jan 3 Quiet
COMMENT: Geomagnetic field was quiet for the last 24 hrs.
The geomagnetic activity is expected to stay mostly at quiet
levels for the next three days.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
24 Jan Fair-normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
25 Jan Normal Normal Normal
26 Jan Normal Normal Normal
27 Jan Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: Mild to strong sporadic E layers were observed at
several low and mid latitude stations mainly during the local
day time today. Relatively weaker sporadic E-layers were also
observed on high latitudes around the same time. These Es
layers sometimes partly and sometimes fully blanketed the
F-regions and may have caused communication difficulties
using F-regions. Periods of minor to mild MUF depressions
were observed on low latitudes during the local day today,
possibly due to a weak ionosphere. This behaviour of the
ionosphere may show up at times for the next few days.
Otherwise HF conditions are expected to remain mostly normal
on most locations over the next three days.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
24 Jan 0
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day with
some periods of MUF depressions,
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day,
Depressed by 25% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for January: 12
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
25 Jan -3 near predicted monthly values
26 Jan -3 near predicted monthly values
27 Jan -3 near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Mild to strong sporadic E-layers, that were
observed across many stations in Aus/NZ regions, may
have caused communication difficulties using F-regions
today mainly during the local day hours. HF conditions
are expected to remain mostly normal across Aus/NZ
regions for the next three days.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 23 Jan
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 3.0E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.9E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.30E+08 (moderate fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:19%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A1.0
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 23 Jan
Speed: 423 km/sec Density: 5.7 p/cc Temp: 49400 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
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