[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 17 January 08
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri Jan 18 10:42:55 EST 2008
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 17/2330Z JANUARY 2008 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 17 JANUARY AND FORECAST FOR 18 JANUARY - 20 JANUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 17 Jan: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 17 Jan: 74/11
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
18 Jan 19 Jan 20 Jan
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 70/5 70/5 70/5
COMMENT: Solar disc currently spotless and solar activity expected
to be very low. Solar disc dominated by recurrent coronal hole
of extended longitude. The hole is still geoeffective and causing
enhanced solar wind speeds (Vsw). From SOHO EIT195 and STEREO
EUVI195 spacecraft images the hole appears to be weakening as
well as the the more mid-latitude segments rotating beyond
geoeffective longitudes. The variations in hole latitude (inverted U) and
its latitudinal narrowness appear to make Earth drift in and
out of the higher speed stream as it rotates. Hence Vsw decreased
from 620 to 560 km/sec but then increased to ~650km/sec over
the UT day.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 17 Jan: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 17 Jan : A K
Australian Region 10 23323222
Darwin 8 22223222
Townsville 10 23223322
Learmonth 13 23324323
Camden 10 23323222
Canberra - --------
Hobart 9 22323222
Casey(Ant) 16 4-433232
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 17 Jan :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 2 (Quiet)
Canberra 5 (Quiet)
Hobart 31 (Quiet to unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 17 Jan : A
Fredericksburg 8
Planetary 8
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 16 Jan : A K
Fredericksburg 9
Planetary 11 3333 2223
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
18 Jan 6 Quiet
19 Jan 6 Quiet
20 Jan 4 Quiet
COMMENT: Geomagnetic field was mostly Quiet with some Unsettled
periods over the 24 hrs at mid and equatorial latitudes. Some
activity is still due to coronal hole enhanced Vsw, but summer
magnetic dipole orientation has dampened the magnetic fields
response. The coronal hole is rotating out of geoeffective position
and also waning so activity should be predominantly Quiet by
19-20th.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
17 Jan Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
18 Jan Normal Normal Normal
19 Jan Normal Normal Normal
20 Jan Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: Extensive equatorial spread F observed at equatorial
latitudes and pre-dawn sporadic E at mid-latitudes (in Australasian
sector - take caution with extrapolation to other sectors). High
latitudes still moderately disturbed, probably due to enhanced
polar twin-cell convection caused by geomagnetic-IMF merging,
although this has weakened compared with previous two days.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
17 Jan -5
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values,
Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Depressed by 30% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Depressed by 25% during local night.
Enhanced by 70% after local dawn.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for January: 12
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
18 Jan -5 Below monthly values by (day/night); 5/10% for
northern Australia; 5/10% for southern Australia;
5/10% for equatorial; 0/5% for Antarctica.
19 Jan 0 Below monthly values by (day/night); 5/10% for
northern Australia; 5/5% for southern Australia;
5/10% for equatorial; 0/0% for Antarctica.
20 Jan 0 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: At equatorial and sub-equatorial latitudes, extensive
spread F was again observed, probably due to coronal hole induced
geomagnetic disturbance which is now waning. At mid-latitudes
strong pre-dawn sporadic (Es) which blanketed the F layer widespread.
Night Es was common but often was not blanketing. Antarctic ionosphere
was still moderately disturbed due to ongoing but reduced enhanced
geomagnetic conditions (Unsettled to Active) and polar twin-cell
convection caused by geomagnetic-IMF merging.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 16 Jan
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 3.7E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.8E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.30E+08 (moderate fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:16%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A1.0
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 16 Jan
Speed: 661 km/sec Density: 0.9 p/cc Temp: 191000 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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