[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 16 January 08
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Thu Jan 17 10:43:29 EST 2008
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 16/2330Z JANUARY 2008 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 16 JANUARY AND FORECAST FOR 17 JANUARY - 19 JANUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 16 Jan: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 16 Jan: 73/9
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
17 Jan 18 Jan 19 Jan
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 70/5 70/5 70/5
COMMENT: Solar disc currently spotless and solar activity expected
to be very low. Solar disc dominated by recurrent coronal hole
of extended longitude. The hole is still geoeffective and causing
enhanced solar wind speeds (Vsw). From SOHO EIT195 and STEREO
EUVI195 spacecraft images the hole appears to be slightly weakening
as well as the the more mid-latitude segments rotating beyond
geoeffective longitudes. Vsw slowly increased from 650 to 680
km/sec but then declined to ~650km/sec. The IMF Bz component
at ACE spacecraft had an extended southward period 23-07UT but
low magntitude (l.t. 5nT). Bz then fluctuated north-south but
STEREO spacecraft observed By with magnitude often greater than
Bz which pulled the IMF Bz/By clock angle below 45deg to enhance
geoeffective merging with the geomagnetic field.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 16 Jan: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 16 Jan : A K
Australian Region 12 22333323
Darwin 8 22232312
Townsville 13 23333323
Learmonth 12 22333323
Camden 10 22333222
Canberra 7 2-------
Hobart 11 22333322
Casey(Ant) 15 3--43323
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 16 Jan :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 4 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 34 (Quiet to unsettled)
Hobart 61 (Active)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 16 Jan : A
Fredericksburg 10
Planetary 8
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 15 Jan : A K
Fredericksburg 7
Planetary 8 3222 3202
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
17 Jan 8 Quiet to unsettled
18 Jan 7 Quiet to unsettled
19 Jan 7 Quiet to unsettled
COMMENT: Geomagnetic field Quiet to Unsettled over the 24 hrs
at mid and equatorial latitudes. Some activity still due to coronal
hole enhanced Vsw, but summer magnetic dipole orientation has
dampened response. High-latitudes were at Unsettled to Minor
Storm levels due to geomag-IMF merging from IMF Bz-By clock angle
exceeding 45deg due extended Bz south (23-07UT) and high By values
for most of the day.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
16 Jan Normal-fair Normal Normal-poor
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
17 Jan Normal Normal Normal-Fair
18 Jan Normal Normal Normal
19 Jan Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: Extensive equatorial spread F observed at equatorial
latitudes and sporadic E at mid-latitudes (in Australasian sector,
-caution with extrapolation to other sectors). High latitudes disturbed
due to enhanced geomagnetic conditions and probably polar twin-cell
convection caused by geomagnetic-IMF merging.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
16 Jan -7
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values,
Depressed by 25% after local dawn.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for January: 12
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
17 Jan -5 Below monthly values by (day/night); 5/10% for
northern Australia; 5/10% for southern Australia;
5/10% for equatorial; 0/5% for Antarctica.
18 Jan -5 Below monthly values by (day/night); 5/10% for
northern Australia; 5/10% for southern Australia;
5/10% for equatorial; 0/5% for Antarctica.
19 Jan 0 Below monthly values by (day/night); 5/10% for
northern Australia; 5/5% for southern Australia;
5/10% for equatorial; 0/0% for Antarctica.
COMMENT: At equatorial and sub-equatorial latitudes (Darwin,
Townsville, Niue, Vanimo, Learmonth) extensive spread F was observed.
At mid-latitudes sporadic (Es) was fairly common and often blanketing
the F layer. Antarctic ionosphere was disturbed due to enhanced
geomagnetic conditions (Active to Minor Storm) and probable polar
twin-cell convection caused by geomagnetic-IMF merging.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 15 Jan
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 3.4E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.7E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.40E+08 (moderate fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:13%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A1.0
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 15 Jan
Speed: 673 km/sec Density: 0.9 p/cc Temp: 214000 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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