[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 14 January 08
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Tue Jan 15 10:44:58 EST 2008
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 14/2330Z JANUARY 2008 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 14 JANUARY AND FORECAST FOR 15 JANUARY - 17 JANUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: ** YELLOW **
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 14 Jan: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 14 Jan: 76/14
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
15 Jan 16 Jan 17 Jan
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 75/13 70/5 70/5
COMMENT: Solar disc currently spotless. Disc dominated by a deep
coronal hole of extended longitude. This is now geoeffective
and expected to cause enhanced solar wind speeds (Vsw) for a
number of days. Vsw increased from 550 to high ~700km/sec over
the UT day. There were Vsw spikes near 08UT and 14UT associated
with changes in the phi angle. The solar Interplanetary Magnetic
Field (IMF) Bz component observed by ACE spacecraft fluctuated
north-south with no extended Bz negative periods to enhance
geomagnetic
merging. However the STEREO spacecraft observed a long period
(00-18UT) of By with magnitude equal or greater than Bz (-5nT)
which would pull the IMF Bz/By clock angle below 45deg and allow
merging with the geomagnetic field.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 14 Jan: Unsettled to Active
Estimated Indices 14 Jan : A K
Australian Region 16 33343333
Darwin 14 32243333
Townsville 15 23343333
Learmonth 22 33353443
Camden 15 23343333
Canberra 15 23343333
Hobart 14 23342333
Casey(Ant) 23 4--43443
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 14 Jan :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 75 (Active)
Hobart 90 (Minor storm)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 14 Jan : A
Fredericksburg 14
Planetary 15
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 13 Jan : A K
Fredericksburg 9
Planetary 11 3221 3332
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
15 Jan 14 Unsettled to Active
16 Jan 14 Unsettled to Active
17 Jan 11 Unsettled
COMMENT: Geomagnetic field generally quiet to unsettled over
the 24 hrs at mid and equatorial latitudes but active for ~3hrs
near 10UT. The active period was ~4 hours after a Vsw step change
from 550 to 600+km/sec observed at ACE spacecraft. Field at mid-lats
currently not going above unsettled despite Vsw ~700km/sec for
10hrs but expect unsettled to possibly active later with sustained
high Vsw. High-latitudes were at active to storm levels. Probably
due to enhanced Vsw from coronal hole but also extended geomag-IMF
merging from IMF Bz/By clock angle exceeding 45 deg due to high
By values 00-18UT.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
14 Jan Normal-fair Normal-fair Fair-poor
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
15 Jan Normal Normal Normal-Fair
16 Jan Normal Normal Normal-Fair
17 Jan Normal Normal Normal-Fair
COMMENT: In the Australasian sector equatorial latitudes exhibited
extensive sporadic E (Es), particuarly at night. Much of the
Es was blanketing the F layer. Es was also prevalent across
mid-latitudes
but often not blanketing. High latitudes were disturbed due to
active-storm geomagnetic conditions.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
14 Jan -9
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Depressed by 25% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 20% during local day,
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for January: 12
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
15 Jan -15 Near predicted monthly values with depressions
to 50% at times expected.
16 Jan -20 Near predicted monthly values with depressions
to 30% at times expected.
17 Jan -20 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: IPS HF Communications Warning 3 was issued on 11 January
and is current for interval 14-15 January. At near equatorial
latitudes (Townsville, Niue, Vanimo) extensive sporadic E (Es)
was observed, particuarly at night. Much of the Es was blanketing
the F layer. Es was also prevalent across mid-latitudes and southern
latitudes (e.g. Brisbane, Canberra, Norfolk Is) but often not
blanketing. Antarctic ionosphere was disturbed due to active-storm
geomagnetic conditions.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 13 Jan
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.2E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.7E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.20E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 2%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A1.0
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 13 Jan
Speed: 498 km/sec Density: 3.3 p/cc Temp: 206000 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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