[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 13 January 08
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Mon Jan 14 10:38:09 EST 2008
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 13/2330Z JANUARY 2008 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 13 JANUARY AND FORECAST FOR 14 JANUARY - 16 JANUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:** YELLOW ** ION: ** RED **
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 13 Jan: Very low
Flares: None
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 13 Jan: 75/13
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
14 Jan 15 Jan 16 Jan
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 75/13 70/5 70/5
COMMENT: The solar wind speed is around 550 km/s presently. The
coronal hole has a large latitudinal extent and may cause solar
wind parameters to be disturbed for a number of days.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 13 Jan: Quiet to unsettled
with active periods at high latitudes.
Estimated Indices 13 Jan : A K
Australian Region 10 22223332
Darwin 9 22123332
Townsville 10 22223332
Learmonth 9 32213-32
Camden 9 22213332
Canberra 9 22213332
Hobart 10 22223332
Casey(Ant) 14 4--330--
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 13 Jan :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 3 (Quiet)
Canberra 39 (Quiet to unsettled)
Hobart 80 (Active)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 13 Jan : A
Fredericksburg 14
Planetary 15
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 12 Jan : A K
Fredericksburg 4
Planetary 9 0011 2432
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
14 Jan 17 Mostly unsettled with the possibility of isolated
active periods. Minor storm levels possible at
high latitudes.
15 Jan 12 Mostly unsettled. Chance of isolated active periods.
16 Jan 12 Mostly unsettled. Chance of isolated active periods.
COMMENT: IPS Geomagnetic Warning 1 was issued on 11 January and
is current for interval 13-14 January.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
13 Jan Normal Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
14 Jan Normal Normal-Fair Fair
15 Jan Normal Normal Normal-Fair
16 Jan Normal Normal Normal-Fair
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
13 Jan 6
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
Near predicted monthly values. Depressions to 30% at
times 06-09 and 19-21 UT at Niue.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values to 25% depressed.
Predicted Monthly T index for January: 12
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
14 Jan -30 Near predicted monthly values with depressions
to 50% at times expected.
15 Jan -30 Near predicted monthly values with depressions
to 50% at times expected.
16 Jan -20 Near predicted monthly values with depressions
to 30% at times expected.
COMMENT: IPS HF Communications Warning 3 was issued on 11 January
and is current for interval 14-15 January. Sporadic E observed
at Townsville, Brisbane, Canberra, Hobart and Macquarie Is. stations,
mostly daytime.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 12 Jan
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.5E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.8E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 5.50E+08 (high fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:24%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A1.0
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 12 Jan
Speed: 429 km/sec Density: 3.3 p/cc Temp: 67600 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
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