[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 06 January 08
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Mon Jan 7 10:53:59 EST 2008
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 06/2330Z JANUARY 2008 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 06 JANUARY AND FORECAST FOR 07 JANUARY - 09 JANUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 06 Jan: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 06 Jan: 79/19
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
07 Jan 08 Jan 09 Jan
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 80/20 80/20 80/20
COMMENT: Solar activity was very low over the last 24 hours with
no significant flare activity. Similar conditions are expected
for the next 2 days. Solar wind velocity remains high at ~630km/s.
Bz fluctuated between +/-5nT for most of the UT day. Elevated
solar wind paramters are expected to continue for the next 2
days.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 06 Jan: Unsettled to active
Estimated Indices 06 Jan : A K
Australian Region 16 33334333
Darwin 12 32324322
Townsville 15 23334333
Learmonth 20 33335433
Camden 13 33323332
Canberra 17 33423433
Hobart 15 33423333
Casey(Ant) 21 4--44333
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 06 Jan :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 19 (Quiet)
Hobart 27 (Quiet to unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 06 Jan : A
Fredericksburg 12
Planetary 15
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 05 Jan : A K
Fredericksburg 13
Planetary 18 2244 4434
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
07 Jan 14 Unsettled to Active
08 Jan 10 Quiet to Unsettled
09 Jan 8 Quiet to Unsettled
COMMENT: Unsettled to Active conditions observed over the last
24 hours with minor storm conditions for high latitudes. Unsettled
to Active conditions expected for the next 24 hours with Quiet
to Unsettled conditions expected for 08Jan and 09Jan.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
06 Jan Normal-fair Normal-fair Fair-normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
07 Jan Normal-fair Normal-fair Fair
08 Jan Normal-fair Normal-fair Fair
09 Jan Normal-fair Normal-fair Fair-normal
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF conditions for low to mid latitudes
over the last 24 hours. Depressed conditions for high latitudes.
Similar conditions are expected for the next 2 days with possible
disturbed periods for mid to high latitudes.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
06 Jan -2
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values,
Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day,
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Enhanced by 65% after local dawn.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for January: 12
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
07 Jan -5 depressed 5 to 10%/near predicted monthly values
08 Jan -5 depressed 5 to 10%/near predicted monthly values
09 Jan -5 depressed 5 to 10%/near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Local night and daytime MUF depressions of 20% observed
for Southern AUS/NZ regions during the last 24 hours. Normal
conditions for Northern AUS/Equatorial regions with nightime
enhancements and depressed conditions for Antarctic regions.
Futher depressed MUF conditions can be expected for Southern
AUS/NZ and Antarctic regions with possible disturbed periods
for the next 2 days due to the increase in geomagnetic activity.
Mostly normal conditions expected for Northern AUS/Equatorial
regions.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 05 Jan
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 3.4E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.9E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 4.20E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A1.0
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 05 Jan
Speed: NA km/sec Density: NA p/cc Temp: NA K Bz: NA nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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IPS Radio and Space Services email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
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