[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 01 December 08
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Tue Dec 2 10:35:47 EST 2008
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 01/2330Z DECEMBER 2008 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 01 DECEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 02 DECEMBER - 04 DECEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: ** YELLOW **
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 01 Dec: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 01 Dec: 68/2
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
02 Dec 03 Dec 04 Dec
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 68/2 68/2 68/2
COMMENT: Solar wind speed remained steady at ~300km/s and the
IMF remained mostly neutral. The visible solar disk is spotless.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 01 Dec: Quiet
Estimated Indices 01 Dec : A K
Australian Region 2 12100011
Darwin 1 11000011
Townsville 5 22211121
Learmonth 1 12000001
Camden 1 11100000
Canberra 0 11000000
Hobart 1 12100000
Casey(Ant) 5 23211111
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 01 Dec :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice_Springs 0 (Quiet)
Camden 0 (Quiet)
Gnangara 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 01 Dec : A
Fredericksburg 0
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 30 Nov : A K
Fredericksburg 1
Planetary 1 1000 0000
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
02 Dec 2 Quiet
03 Dec 2 Quiet
04 Dec 8 Quiet to Unsettled
COMMENT: The geomagnetic field was Quiet over the UT day. Quiet
geomagnetic conditions expected next two days. Quiet to unsettled
conditions expected after day two due to a recurrent coronal
hole wind stream.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
01 Dec Fair Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
02 Dec Fair-normal Normal Normal
03 Dec Fair-normal Normal Normal
04 Dec Normal Normal Normal
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
01 Dec -35
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
Depressed by 40% during local day,
Depressed by 25% during local night.
Depressed by 35% after local dawn.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Depressed by 25% after local dawn.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day,
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for December: 5
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
02 Dec -30 depressed 10 to 30%/near predicted monthly values
03 Dec -25 depressed 10 to 30%/near predicted monthly values
04 Dec -20 depressed 10 to 30%/near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: IPS HF Communications Warning 19 was issued on 29 November
and is current for interval 30 November to 2 December. Depressed
ionospheric conditions at low to mid latitudes observed and expected
to continue next two to three days.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 30 Nov
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 9.2E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.9E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.90E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A1.0
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 30 Nov
Speed: 367 km/sec Density: 1.1 p/cc Temp: 40500 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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