[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 30 November 08
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Mon Dec 1 10:06:21 EST 2008
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 30/2330Z NOVEMBER 2008 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 30 NOVEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 01 DECEMBER - 03 DECEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: ** YELLOW **
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 30 Nov: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 30 Nov: 68/2
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
01 Dec 02 Dec 03 Dec
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 68/2 68/2 68/2
COMMENT: Very low solar activity over the last 24 hours. The
visible solar disk is spotless. Solar wind speed slow (< 400km/s)
and IMF relatively stable. Similar conditions expected 01 Dec.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 30 Nov: Quiet
Estimated Indices 30 Nov : A K
Australian Region 2 11111110
Darwin 2 11111101
Townsville 6 2223--10
Learmonth 3 11112210
Camden 2 10111111
Canberra 1 10111100
Hobart 1 01111100
Casey(Ant) 7 23-22221
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 30 Nov :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 3 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice_Springs 0 (Quiet)
Camden 0 (Quiet)
Gnangara 3 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 30 Nov : A
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 29 Nov : A K
Fredericksburg 2
Planetary 2 0011 1001
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
01 Dec 2 Quiet
02 Dec 1 Quiet
03 Dec 1 Quiet
COMMENT: The geomagnetic field was Quiet over the UT day (30
Nov). Quiet geomagnetic conditions expected next three days (01-03
Dec).
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
30 Nov Normal Normal-fair Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
01 Dec Normal Normal Normal
02 Dec Normal Normal Normal
03 Dec Normal Normal Normal
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
30 Nov -37
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day,
Depressed by 25% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Depressed by 20% during local day,
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Depressed by 15% over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for November: 3
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
01 Dec -30 depressed 10 to 30%/near predicted monthly values
02 Dec -30 depressed 10 to 30%/near predicted monthly values
03 Dec -25 depressed 10 to 30%/near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: IPS HF Communications Warning 19 was issued on 29 November
and is current for interval 30 November to 2 December. Depressed
ionospheric conditions at all latitudes, expected to continue
due to very low solar activity. Sporadic E observed at Southern
Australian stations overnight.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 29 Nov
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 6.3E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.9E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.70E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A1.0
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 29 Nov
Speed: 426 km/sec Density: 1.0 p/cc Temp: 52200 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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