[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 19 August 08
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed Aug 20 09:36:30 EST 2008
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 19/2330Z AUGUST 2008 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 19 AUGUST AND FORECAST FOR 20 AUGUST - 22 AUGUST
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 19 Aug: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 19 Aug: 67/0
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
20 Aug 21 Aug 22 Aug
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 66/0 66/0 66/0
COMMENT: The solar disk is spotless. Solar wind parameters are
elevated due to a recurrent coronal hole wind stream.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 19 Aug: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 19 Aug : A K
Australian Region 7 22232221
Darwin 6 22222221
Townsville 13 33333322
Learmonth 7 22232221
Camden 7 22232211
Canberra 7 22232221
Hobart 8 22332211
Casey(Ant) 12 24332321
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 19 Aug :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 2 (Quiet)
Alice_Springs 0 (Quiet)
Camden 4 (Quiet)
Gnangara 43 (Unsettled)
Canberra 12 (Quiet)
Hobart 37 (Quiet to unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 19 Aug : A
Fredericksburg 12
Planetary 15
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 18 Aug : A K
Fredericksburg 15
Planetary 23 3434 5433
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
20 Aug 10 Quiet to Unsettled
21 Aug 6 Quiet
22 Aug 5 Quiet
COMMENT: IPS Geomagnetic Warning 11 was issued on 16 August and
is current for interval 18-20 August. Solar wind speed declined
steadily from 600 to 500 km/s over the UT day. The Bz component
of the interplanetary magnetic field showed minor fluctuations
about neutral. The geomagnetic field was mostly unsettled at
low to mid latitudes with active to minor storm periods at high
latitudes. Expect quiet to unsettled conditions day one, gradually
declining to generally quiet conditions days two to three.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
19 Aug Normal-fair Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
20 Aug Normal Normal Normal-Fair
21 Aug Normal Normal Normal
22 Aug Normal Normal Normal
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
19 Aug -3
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day,
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Enhanced by 35% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Enhanced by 30% over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for August: 2
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
20 Aug -5 near predicted monthly values
21 Aug 0 near predicted monthly values
22 Aug 0 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Ionospheric conditions were mostly normal over the UT
day with variable depressions in the Equatorial/North Australia
regions due to low solar activity. Periods of disturbance in
Antarctic region due to elevated geomagnetic activity. Expect
these conditions to prevail over the next three days.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 18 Aug
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 2.5E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.8E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.10E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 2%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A1.0
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 18 Aug
Speed: NA km/sec Density: NA p/cc Temp: NA K Bz: NA nT
Note: ACE satellite solar wind data not available at this time.
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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