[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 18 August 08
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Tue Aug 19 09:47:25 EST 2008
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 18/2330Z AUGUST 2008 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 18 AUGUST AND FORECAST FOR 19 AUGUST - 21 AUGUST
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 18 Aug: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 18 Aug: 66/0
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
19 Aug 20 Aug 21 Aug
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 66/0 66/0 66/0
COMMENT: The solar disk is spotless. Solar wind parameters are
elevated due to a recurrent coronal hole wind stream.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 18 Aug: Quiet to Active
Estimated Indices 18 Aug : A K
Australian Region 13 22244322
Darwin 11 22243322
Townsville 15 23344322
Learmonth 18 22245432
Camden 15 12245322
Canberra 16 13245322
Hobart 15 12245322
Casey(Ant) 17 33334432
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 18 Aug :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 4 (Quiet)
Learmonth 4 (Quiet)
Alice_Springs 4 (Quiet)
Camden 23 (Quiet to unsettled)
Gnangara 43 (Unsettled)
Canberra 23 (Quiet to unsettled)
Hobart 51 (Unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 18 Aug : A
Fredericksburg 15
Planetary 15
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 17 Aug : A K
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 7 3212 2222
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
19 Aug 15 Unsettled to Active
20 Aug 10 Quiet to Unsettled
21 Aug 6 Quiet
COMMENT: IPS Geomagnetic Warning 11 was issued on 16 August and
is current for interval 18-20 August. Geomagnetic conditions
were quiet until onset of the anticipated coronal hole wind stream
during the mid-part of the UT day. An interval of active to minor
storm conditions was observed at all latitudes, declining to
unsettled conditions at low to mid latitudes. Minor storm conditions
prevailed at high latitudes. Expect unsettled conditions next
two days with the chance of isolated active to minor storm intervals.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
18 Aug Normal-fair Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
19 Aug Normal Normal Normal-Fair
20 Aug Normal Normal Normal-Fair
21 Aug Normal Normal Normal
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
18 Aug 3
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Daytime depressions to 30% observed at Vanimo.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Briefly depressed after local dawn at Darwin.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Enhanced up to 70% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Enhanced by 30% over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for August: 2
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
19 Aug 0 Mostly near predicted monthly values.
20 Aug 0 Near predicted monthly values
21 Aug 0 Near predicted monthly values
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 17 Aug
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.1E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.8E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 4.50E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A1.0
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 17 Aug
Speed: 372 km/sec Density: 6.3 p/cc Temp: 57900 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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