[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 13 April 08

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 13/2330Z APRIL 2008 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 13 APRIL AND FORECAST FOR 14 APRIL - 16 APRIL

STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN

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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 13 Apr:  Very low

Flares: None

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 13 Apr:  69/3

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             14 Apr             15 Apr             16 Apr
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    70/5               70/5               70/5

COMMENT: The solar wind speed ranged from approximately 550 to 
640 km/s over the past 24 hours. The SOHO/LASCO imagery shows 
ejection of material from the southern limb late on the 12 April 
around 1850 UT and 2226 UT. 

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 13 Apr: Quiet to unsettled.
Periods of activity were observed at high latitudes. 

Estimated Indices 13 Apr :  A   K           
   Australian Region      10   22323322
      Darwin               8   22213312
      Townsville           9   22223322
      Learmonth           11   22323421
      Camden               7   11223311
      Canberra             -   --------
      Hobart               8   21223321
      Casey(Ant)          15   3-433412
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 13 Apr : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             4   (Quiet)
      Hobart              36   (Quiet to unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 13 Apr : A 
           Fredericksburg         5
           Planetary              5                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 12 Apr :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         8
           Planetary             11   2432 3122     

2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
14 Apr     5    Quiet to unsettled 
15 Apr     5    Quiet to unsettled 
16 Apr     5    Quiet to unsettled 

COMMENT: Periods of activity still possible at high latitudes. 
The CMEs noted above are not expected to be geo-effective. 

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
13 Apr      Normal-fair    Normal         Normal-fair    
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
14 Apr      Normal         Normal         Normal
15 Apr      Normal         Normal         Normal
16 Apr      Normal         Normal         Normal

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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY

Date   T index
13 Apr    -1

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
      Near predicted monthly values. Depressions to 40%
      observed at Vanimo 06-07 and 14-15 UT. Depressions to
      30% at Niue 00-01, 06-07 and 20-21 UT.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values. Depressions to 40%
      03-06 UT.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values. Night spread F observed
      at Hobart.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values to 30% depressed.
      Enhancements to 40% at Scott Base 11-13 UT. Spread F
      observed.

Predicted Monthly T index for April:   6

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
14 Apr     6    Near predicted monthly values 
15 Apr     6    Near predicted monthly values 
16 Apr     6    Near predicted monthly values 

COMMENT: Depressions to 30% possible at times. 

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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 12 Apr
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   4.0E+06
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.8E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.40E+08   (moderate fluence)   
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:20%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A1.0

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 12 Apr
Speed: 559 km/sec  Density:    1.0 p/cc  Temp:   183000 K  Bz:   0 nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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