[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 12 April 08

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 12/2330Z APRIL 2008 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 12 APRIL AND FORECAST FOR 13 APRIL - 15 APRIL
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 12 Apr:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 12 Apr:  68/2

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             13 Apr             14 Apr             15 Apr
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    70/5               70/5               70/5

COMMENT: The solar wind speed is presently 560 km/s and is expected 
to remain around 500 km/s for the next three days. The Bz component 
of the interplanetary magnetic field ranged from +/-4 nT, no 
significant reconnection is expected for the next three days. 
No spots noted on the Earth side of the solar disk. 

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 12 Apr: Quiet to Unsettled 

Estimated Indices 12 Apr :  A   K           
   Australian Region      11   23323232
      Darwin               8   23223221
      Townsville          13   33234232
      Learmonth           14   23235231
      Camden               9   23323122
      Canberra            11   2332323-
      Hobart              10   13323231
      Casey(Ant)          15   34423232
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 12 Apr : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Canberra            21   (Quiet to unsettled)
      Hobart              65   (Active)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 12 Apr : A 
           Fredericksburg         7
           Planetary              8                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 11 Apr :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         3
           Planetary              4   2102 1102     

2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
13 Apr     5    Quiet 
14 Apr     7    Quiet 
15 Apr     6    Quiet 

COMMENT: Expect mostly quiet conditions with possible isolated 
cases of unsettled conditions for the next three days. 
A weak (13nT) impulse was observed in the IPS magnetometer data 
at 1214UT on 12 Apr. 
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
12 Apr      Normal         Normal         Normal         
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
13 Apr      Normal         Normal         Normal
14 Apr      Normal         Normal         Normal
15 Apr      Normal         Normal         Normal

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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY

Date   T index
12 Apr     5

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Predicted Monthly T index for April:   6

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
13 Apr     0    near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to 
                20% 
14 Apr     0    near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to 
                20% 
15 Apr     0    near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to 
                20% 

COMMENT: Expect slightly depressed conditions due to low ionisation 
in the ionosphere due to having no active regions visible on 
the solar disk. 
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 11 Apr
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   2.1E+06
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.7E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 6.20E+08   (high fluence)   
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:25%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A1.0

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 11 Apr
Speed: 533 km/sec  Density:    0.9 p/cc  Temp:   124000 K  Bz:   2 nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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