[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 10 April 08
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri Apr 11 09:26:43 EST 2008
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 10/2330Z APRIL 2008 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 10 APRIL AND FORECAST FOR 11 APRIL - 13 APRIL
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 10 Apr: Very low
Flares: None
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 10 Apr: 68/2
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
11 Apr 12 Apr 13 Apr
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 70/5 70/5 70/5
COMMENT: The solar wind speed ranged from approximately 580 to
690 km/s over the past 24 hours. The solar wind speed is expected
to continue declining.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 10 Apr: Mostly quiet to
unsettled. Periods of activity were observed at high latitudes.
Estimated Indices 10 Apr : A K
Australian Region 10 32333211
Darwin 7 22223211
Townsville 11 32333222
Learmonth 12 32334222
Camden 7 22223211
Canberra 7 -2223211
Hobart 8 22233211
Casey(Ant) 15 34433222
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 10 Apr :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 23 (Quiet to unsettled)
Hobart 26 (Quiet to unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 10 Apr : A
Fredericksburg 7
Planetary 10
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 09 Apr : A K
Fredericksburg 9
Planetary 12 3343 2112
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
11 Apr 8 Quiet to unsettled
12 Apr 5 Quiet
13 Apr 5 Quiet
COMMENT: There is still the chance of isolated active conditions
at high latitudes over the next 24 hours.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
10 Apr Normal-fair Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
11 Apr Normal Normal Normal-Fair
12 Apr Normal Normal Normal
13 Apr Normal Normal Normal
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
10 Apr 6
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
Near predicted monthly values. At Vanimo, MUFs were
depressed 25% at 02 UT and enhanced to 30% 10-20 UT.
At Niue, depressions to 40% were observed 00-01 and
05-06 UT; some night spread F observed.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values with depressions to 30%
observed at Darwin and Townsville 00-05 UT and Darwin
10-12 UT. Some night spread F observed at Darwin and
Brisbane.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values. Enhancements to 30%
observed at Sydney and Canberra 14-20 UT. Night spread
F observed at Hobart.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values to 30% depressed. Spread
F observed.
Predicted Monthly T index for April: 6
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
11 Apr 10 Near predicted monthly values
12 Apr 10 Near predicted monthly values
13 Apr 10 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Depressions to 30% possible.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 09 Apr
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 3.8E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.7E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 4.00E+08 (moderate fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:21%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A1.0
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 09 Apr
Speed: 692 km/sec Density: 0.7 p/cc Temp: 206000 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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