[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 09 April 08
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Thu Apr 10 09:31:07 EST 2008
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 09/2330Z APRIL 2008 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 09 APRIL AND FORECAST FOR 10 APRIL - 12 APRIL
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 09 Apr: Very low
Flares: None
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 09 Apr: 68/2
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
10 Apr 11 Apr 12 Apr
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 70/5 70/5 70/5
COMMENT: The solar wind speed ranged from approximately 630 to
775 km/s over the past 24 hours. The solar wind speed is likely
to slowly decline over the forecast period. A CME was first observed
on the SOHO/LASCO C2 images at 1106 UT. This CME appears to have
been ejected from behind the south west limb.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 09 Apr: Mostly quiet to
unsettled. Active to minor storm levels observed at high latitudes.
Estimated Indices 09 Apr : A K
Australian Region 10 32333211
Darwin 6 22222211
Townsville 11 32333222
Learmonth 11 33333221
Camden 8 22332211
Canberra 10 32333211
Hobart 9 22333211
Casey(Ant) 17 44433213
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 09 Apr :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 31 (Quiet to unsettled)
Canberra 83 (Minor storm)
Hobart 101 (Major storm)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 09 Apr : A
Fredericksburg 9
Planetary 12
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 08 Apr : A K
Fredericksburg 6
Planetary 9 1123 3223
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
10 Apr 8 Quiet to unsettled
11 Apr 5 Quiet
12 Apr 5 Quiet
COMMENT: Isolated active levels possible over the next 24 hours
at high latitudes. The above mentioned CME is considered unlikely
to be geoeffective.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
09 Apr Normal-fair Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
10 Apr Normal Normal Normal-Fair
11 Apr Normal Normal Normal
12 Apr Normal Normal Normal
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
09 Apr 5
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
Near predicted monthly values. Depressions to 60% at
Vanimo 12-20 UT. Night spread F and afternoon sporadic
E observed at Niue.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values. Depressions to 30%
observed at Darwin and Townsville, 01-05 UT.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values. Night spread F observed
at Hobart and Learmonth.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values to 30% depressed. Spread
F observed.
Predicted Monthly T index for April: 6
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
10 Apr 10 Near predicted monthly values
11 Apr 10 Near predicted monthly values
12 Apr 10 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Depressions to 30% possible.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 08 Apr
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 5.7E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.7E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.20E+08 (moderate fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:19%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A1.0
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 08 Apr
Speed: 657 km/sec Density: 0.9 p/cc Temp: 193000 K Bz: 2 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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