[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 01 April 08
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed Apr 2 10:43:52 EST 2008
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 01/2330Z APRIL 2008 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 01 APRIL AND FORECAST FOR 02 APRIL - 04 APRIL
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 01 Apr: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 01 Apr: 78/17
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
02 Apr 03 Apr 04 Apr
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 75/13 75/13 75/13
COMMENT: Solar activity is expected to remain mostly at very
low levels for the next three days, with the small chance of
isolated C-class flares. Solar winds speeds are expected to remain
low over the next 2-3 days and then increase late in the UT day
of 4 April and into 5 April due to the anticipated arrival of
a coronal hole solar wind stream.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 01 Apr: Quiet
Estimated Indices 01 Apr : A K
Australian Region 5 22122111
Darwin 5 22122112
Townsville 8 23222222
Learmonth 5 22123101
Camden 3 12122001
Canberra 4 22122001
Hobart 3 12212000
Casey(Ant) 10 34-32111
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 01 Apr :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 2 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 01 Apr : A
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 31 Mar : A K
Fredericksburg 2
Planetary 4 2002 1112
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
02 Apr 5 Quiet
03 Apr 5 Quiet
04 Apr 12 Mostly quiet with active to minor storm levels
possible late in the UT day.
COMMENT: IPS Geomagnetic Warning 4 was issued on 1 April and
is current for interval 4-6 April. Mostly quiet levels are expected
for the next 2-3 days. Isolated active to minor storm periods
are possible late in the UT day of 4 April due to the anticipated
arrival of a coronal hole solar wind stream.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
01 Apr Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
02 Apr Normal Normal Normal
03 Apr Normal Normal Normal
04 Apr Normal Normal Normal-Fair
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
01 Apr 29
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
Near predicted monthly values to
enhanced up to 30% at times.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day,
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Mostly near predicted monthly values to
enhanced by 15%.
Predicted Monthly T index for April: 6
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
02 Apr 30 5 to 30% above predicted monthly values
03 Apr 25 5 to 20% above predicted monthly values
04 Apr 25 5 to 20% above predicted monthly values
COMMENT: HF conditions are expected to remain mostly normal to
enhanced for the Aus/NZ region over the next three days. There
is a very small chance of a short-wave fadeout.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 31 Mar
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.3E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.7E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.80E+09 (very high fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:36%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A3.3
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 31 Mar
Speed: 403 km/sec Density: 2.3 p/cc Temp: 45200 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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