[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 31 March 08

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Tue Apr 1 10:46:17 EST 2008


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 31/2330Z MARCH 2008 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 31 MARCH AND FORECAST FOR 01 APRIL - 03 APRIL
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 31 Mar:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 31 Mar:  79/19


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             01 Apr             02 Apr             03 Apr
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    79/19              75/13              75/13
COMMENT: Solar activity is expected to remain mostly at very 
low levels for the next three days, with the small chance of 
isolated C-class flares from any of the three regions that are 
currently on the visible solar disk. Solar winds speeds continued 
to decline slowly over the past 24 hours from approximately 500 
km/s down to less than 400 km/s. LASCO imagery does not appear 
to show any evidence of a CME associated with the disappearing 
solar filament reported for 31 March. 




-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 31 Mar: Quiet 

Estimated Indices 31 Mar :  A   K           
   Australian Region       4   11122111
      Darwin               3   11112111
      Townsville           7   22222222
      Learmonth            3   11022111
      Camden               2   11012010
      Canberra             3   11022011
      Hobart               3   11022111
      Casey(Ant)           8   3-322122
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 31 Mar : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Hobart               0   (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 31 Mar : A 
           Fredericksburg         5
           Planetary              5                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 30 Mar :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         6
           Planetary              8   4222 2112     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
01 Apr     5    Quiet 
02 Apr     5    Quiet 
03 Apr     5    Quiet 
COMMENT: Mostly quiet levels are expected for the next few days. 

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
31 Mar      Normal         Normal         Normal         
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
01 Apr      Normal         Normal         Normal
02 Apr      Normal         Normal         Normal
03 Apr      Normal         Normal         Normal

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
31 Mar    24

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values
      to enhanced up to 30% at times.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values,
      Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values,
      Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Mostly near predicted monthly values.

Predicted Monthly T index for March:   6

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
01 Apr    35    5 to 25% above predicted monthly values 
02 Apr    30    5 to 20% above predicted monthly values 
03 Apr    25    5 to 15% above predicted monthly values 
COMMENT: HF conditions are expected to remain mostly normal to 
enhanced for the Aus/NZ region over the next three days. 
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 30 Mar
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   1.3E+06
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.6E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.50E+09   (very high fluence)  

Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:34%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A3.7

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 30 Mar
Speed: 508 km/sec  Density:    1.8 p/cc  Temp:   112000 K  Bz:   0 nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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