[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 31 March 08
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Tue Apr 1 10:46:17 EST 2008
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 31/2330Z MARCH 2008 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 31 MARCH AND FORECAST FOR 01 APRIL - 03 APRIL
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 31 Mar: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 31 Mar: 79/19
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
01 Apr 02 Apr 03 Apr
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 79/19 75/13 75/13
COMMENT: Solar activity is expected to remain mostly at very
low levels for the next three days, with the small chance of
isolated C-class flares from any of the three regions that are
currently on the visible solar disk. Solar winds speeds continued
to decline slowly over the past 24 hours from approximately 500
km/s down to less than 400 km/s. LASCO imagery does not appear
to show any evidence of a CME associated with the disappearing
solar filament reported for 31 March.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 31 Mar: Quiet
Estimated Indices 31 Mar : A K
Australian Region 4 11122111
Darwin 3 11112111
Townsville 7 22222222
Learmonth 3 11022111
Camden 2 11012010
Canberra 3 11022011
Hobart 3 11022111
Casey(Ant) 8 3-322122
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 31 Mar :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 31 Mar : A
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 30 Mar : A K
Fredericksburg 6
Planetary 8 4222 2112
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
01 Apr 5 Quiet
02 Apr 5 Quiet
03 Apr 5 Quiet
COMMENT: Mostly quiet levels are expected for the next few days.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
31 Mar Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
01 Apr Normal Normal Normal
02 Apr Normal Normal Normal
03 Apr Normal Normal Normal
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
31 Mar 24
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values
to enhanced up to 30% at times.
Northern Australian Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values,
Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values,
Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Predicted Monthly T index for March: 6
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
01 Apr 35 5 to 25% above predicted monthly values
02 Apr 30 5 to 20% above predicted monthly values
03 Apr 25 5 to 15% above predicted monthly values
COMMENT: HF conditions are expected to remain mostly normal to
enhanced for the Aus/NZ region over the next three days.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 30 Mar
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.3E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.6E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.50E+09 (very high fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:34%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A3.7
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 30 Mar
Speed: 508 km/sec Density: 1.8 p/cc Temp: 112000 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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