[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 29 September 07
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sun Sep 30 09:47:43 EST 2007
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 29/2330Z SEPTEMBER 2007 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 29 SEPTEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 30 SEPTEMBER - 02 OCTOBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 29 Sep: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 29 Sep: 68/2
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
30 Sep 01 Oct 02 Oct
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 68/2 68/2 68/2
COMMENT: Solar activity was very low over the last 24 hours.
Solar wind has remained at elevated levels due to coronal hole
effects and is expected to stay so for the next 2 days. It is
currently 660km/s at the time of this report. The north-south
component of the interplanetary magnetic field (Bz) fluctuated
between +/-5nT for the first half of the UT day, and between
+/-3nT for the remainder. Solar activity is expected to remain
at very low levels for the next 3 days.
-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 29 Sep: Quiet to Active
Estimated Indices 29 Sep : A K
Australian Region 18 33444323
Darwin 16 33444222
Townsville 18 33444323
Learmonth 22 33445333
Camden 18 33444323
Canberra 17 23444323
Hobart 17 33444322
Casey(Ant) 21 44533323
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 29 Sep :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 2 (Quiet)
Camden 47 (Unsettled)
Canberra 41 (Unsettled)
Hobart 65 (Active)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 29 Sep : A
Fredericksburg 20
Planetary 25
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 28 Sep : A K
Fredericksburg 15
Planetary 21 4443 2245
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
30 Sep 14 Unsettled to Active
01 Oct 8 Quiet to Unsettled
02 Oct 6 Quiet
COMMENT: Quiet to Active geomagnetic conditions observed over
the last 24 hours. Mostly Unsettled conditions are expected for
the next 24 hours with possible Active periods due to coronal
hole effects. Quiet to Unsettled conditions expected for 01 Oct
and 02 Oct.
-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
29 Sep Normal-fair Normal-fair Fair-poor
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
30 Sep Normal-fair Normal-fair Fair-poor
01 Oct Normal-fair Normal Fair-poor
02 Oct Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: Minor depressed MUFs for low to mid latitudes with otherwise
mostly normal HF conditions. High latitudes experienced disturbed
HF conditions. Similar conditions expected for the next 24 hours
with possible depressed HF conditions for mid to high latitudes.
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
29 Sep 3
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Enhanced by 15% over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for September: 10
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
30 Sep 0 near predicted monthly values/depressed 5 to
10%
01 Oct 0 near predicted monthly values/depressed 5 to
10%
02 Oct 5 near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Depressed periods observed for Equatorial/Northern AUS
regions during local night. Normal conditions observed for Southern
AUS/NZ regions and disturbed conditions for Antarctic regions.
Mostly normal conditions expected for Northern AUS/Equatorial
regions with possible depressed periods over the next 2 days.
Southern AUS/NZ regions and Antarctic regions can expect depressed
MUFs and disturbed periods for the next 2 days with the increase
in geomagnetic activty.
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 28 Sep
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.9E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.7E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 7.50E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A1.0
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 28 Sep
Speed: 578 km/sec Density: 4.4 p/cc Temp: 243000 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------
IPS Radio and Space Services email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
IMPORTANT: This e-mail, including any attachments, may contain,
confidential or copyright information. The views expressed in
this message are those of the individual sender, unless
specifically stated to be the views of IPS. If you are not
the intended recipient, please contact the sender immediately
and delete all copies of this e-mail and attachments.
Occasionally IPS sends email promoting IPS products and
services to its mailing list customers. If you do not wish to
receive this promotional material please email
no-spam at ips.gov.au with the subject header:UNSUBSCRIBE"
More information about the ips-dsgr
mailing list