[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 28 September 07
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sat Sep 29 09:53:52 EST 2007
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 28/2330Z SEPTEMBER 2007 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 28 SEPTEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 29 SEPTEMBER - 01 OCTOBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 28 Sep: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 28 Sep: 67/0
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
29 Sep 30 Sep 01 Oct
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 67/0 67/0 67/0
COMMENT: Solar activity was very low over the last 24 hours.
Solar wind has remained at elevated levels as coronal hole effects
dominate. The solar wind speed is expected to stay at elevated
levels over the next 2 days and is currently 600km/s at the time
of this report. The north-south component of the interplanetary
magnetic field (Bz) fluctuated between +/-6nT between the same
periods that the solar wind reached speeds > 580km/s. Solar activity
is expected to remain at very low levels for the next 3 days
- new region 971 emerged in the last 24 hours.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 28 Sep: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 28 Sep : A K
Australian Region 11 33321233
Darwin 7 22321222
Townsville 13 33322333
Learmonth 13 33322234
Camden 9 23321223
Canberra 11 33321233
Hobart 13 23431233
Casey(Ant) 16 34432233
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 28 Sep :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 4 (Quiet)
Camden 61 (Active)
Canberra 63 (Active)
Hobart 93 (Minor storm)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 28 Sep : A
Fredericksburg 15
Planetary 18
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 27 Sep : A K
Fredericksburg 10
Planetary 19 0002 1654
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
29 Sep 14 Unsettled to Active
30 Sep 14 Unsettled to Active
01 Oct 6 Quiet
COMMENT: Quiet to Unsettled geomagnetic conditions observed over
the last 24 hours. Mostly Unsettled conditions are expected for
the next 2 days with possible Active periods due to the arrival
of a high speed solar wind stream from a recurrent coronal hole.
Unsettled conditions expected for 01 Oct.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
28 Sep Normal-fair Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
29 Sep Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-poor
30 Sep Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-poor
01 Oct Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-poor
COMMENT: Minor depressed MUFs for low latitudes and mostly normal
HF conditions for mid to high latitudes observed over the last
24 hours. Depressed periods expected for mid to high latitudes
and possible disturbed periods with an increase in geomagnetic
activity over this period.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
28 Sep 7
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day,
Depressed by 25% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Enhanced by 15% over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for September: 10
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
29 Sep 0 depressed 10 to 20%/near predicted monthly values
30 Sep 0 depressed 10 to 20%/near predicted monthly values
01 Oct 5 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Depressed periods observed for Equatorial/Northern AUS
regions during local night and enhanced periods during local
day. Enhanced periods observed during local night for Southern
AUS/NZ regions. Mostly normal conditions expected for Northern
AUS/Equatorial regions with possible depressed periods over the
next 2 days. Souther AUS/NZ regions and Antartic regions can
expect depressed MUFs and dusturbed periods for the next 2 days
with the increase in geomagnetic activty.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 27 Sep
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 2.3E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.7E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.80E+08 (moderate fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:14%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A1.0
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 27 Sep
Speed: 402 km/sec Density: 4.3 p/cc Temp: 34600 K Bz: 2 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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