[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 16 October 07
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed Oct 17 09:47:34 EST 2007
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 16/2330Z OCTOBER 2007 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 16 OCTOBER AND FORECAST FOR 17 OCTOBER - 19 OCTOBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION:*YELLOW*
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 16 Oct: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 16 Oct: 67/0
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
17 Oct 18 Oct 19 Oct
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 67/0 67/0 67/0
COMMENT: Solar wind speeds are expected to increase over the
next couple of days due to a recurrent coronal hole solar wind
stream.
-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 16 Oct: Quiet
Estimated Indices 16 Oct : A K
Australian Region 4 12112211
Darwin 4 21112211
Townsville 6 22212221
Learmonth 4 11112211
Camden 3 11112201
Canberra 3 02112200
Hobart 4 11112211
Casey(Ant) 8 23322211
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 16 Oct :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Camden 2 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 16 Oct : A
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 15 Oct : A K
Fredericksburg 1
Planetary 2 1000 0101
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
17 Oct 12 Quiet to unsettled with isolated active periods
possible.
18 Oct 12 Quiet to unsettled with isolated active periods
possible.
19 Oct 8 Quiet to unsettled
COMMENT: The effects of a high speed solar wind stream from a
recurrent coronal hole are expected to result in slightly elevated
geomagnetic activity for 17-18 October with isolated active periods
possible.
-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
16 Oct Normal-poor Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
17 Oct Normal Normal Normal-Fair
18 Oct Normal Normal Normal-Fair
19 Oct Normal Normal Normal-Fair
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
16 Oct -9
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Depressed by 30% during local night.
Depressed by 30% after local dawn.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Depressed by 25% during local night.
Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for October: 10
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
17 Oct -5 depressed 15 to 30%/near predicted monthly values
18 Oct 0 depressed 10 to 20%/near predicted monthly values
19 Oct 0 depressed 10 to 20%/near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Significant depressions were observed at times during
the past 24 hours primarily for northern Australian/Equatorial
regions. Significant depressions are again expected at times
for northern Australian/Equatorial regions, otherwise mostly
normal conditions are expected for the next few days. Spread-F
and Sporadic-E conditions were observed at times.
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 15 Oct
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 5.7E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.9E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.20E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 0%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A1.0
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 15 Oct
Speed: 305 km/sec Density: 4.3 p/cc Temp: 34400 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------
IPS Radio and Space Services email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
IMPORTANT: This e-mail, including any attachments, may contain,
confidential or copyright information. The views expressed in
this message are those of the individual sender, unless
specifically stated to be the views of IPS. If you are not
the intended recipient, please contact the sender immediately
and delete all copies of this e-mail and attachments.
Occasionally IPS sends email promoting IPS products and
services to its mailing list customers. If you do not wish to
receive this promotional material please email
no-spam at ips.gov.au with the subject header:UNSUBSCRIBE"
More information about the ips-dsgr
mailing list