[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 15 October 07

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Tue Oct 16 09:47:43 EST 2007


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 15/2330Z OCTOBER 2007 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 15 OCTOBER AND FORECAST FOR 16 OCTOBER - 18 OCTOBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN  ION:*YELLOW*
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 15 Oct:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 15 Oct:  67/0


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             16 Oct             17 Oct             18 Oct
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    67/0               67/0               67/0





-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 15 Oct: Quiet 

Estimated Indices 15 Oct :  A   K           
   Australian Region       3   11111211
      Darwin               3   21111111
      Townsville           7   22222222
      Learmonth            3   10111202
      Camden               2   11110101
      Canberra             2   12010200
      Hobart               2   11110201
      Casey(Ant)           7   23321112
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 15 Oct : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Camden               0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Hobart               0   (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 15 Oct : A 
           Fredericksburg         3
           Planetary              5                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 14 Oct :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         3
           Planetary              5   1122 2101     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
16 Oct     5    Quiet 
17 Oct    15    Quiet to unsettled with isolated active periods 
                possible. 
18 Oct    10    Quiet to Unsettled 
COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity is expected to remain mostly at 
quiet levels for 16 October. The effect of a high speed solar 
wind stream from a recurrent coronal hole is expected to result 
in slightly elevated geomagnetic activity for 17-18 October with 
isolated active periods possible for 17 October. 

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
15 Oct      Normal-fair    Normal         Normal         
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
16 Oct      Normal         Normal         Normal
17 Oct      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
18 Oct      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
15 Oct    -2

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
      Depressed by 15% during local day,
      Depressed by 30% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Depressed by 15% during local night.
      Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Predicted Monthly T index for October:  10

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
16 Oct     0    depressed 10 to 20%/near predicted monthly values 
17 Oct     0    depressed 10 to 20%/near predicted monthly values 
18 Oct     0    depressed 10 to 20%/near predicted monthly values 
COMMENT: Mild depressions were observed at times during the past 
24 hours primarily for northern Australian/Equatorial regions. 
Mild depressions are expected at times for the Aus/NZ regions, 
otherwise mostly near predicted monthly values are expected for 
the next few days. 
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 14 Oct
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   9.7E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.9E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.10E+06   (normal fluence)   
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 0%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A1.0

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 14 Oct
Speed: 308 km/sec  Density:    5.2 p/cc  Temp:    48300 K  Bz:  -2 nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------


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