[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 15 October 07
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Tue Oct 16 09:47:43 EST 2007
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 15/2330Z OCTOBER 2007 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 15 OCTOBER AND FORECAST FOR 16 OCTOBER - 18 OCTOBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION:*YELLOW*
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 15 Oct: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 15 Oct: 67/0
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
16 Oct 17 Oct 18 Oct
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 67/0 67/0 67/0
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 15 Oct: Quiet
Estimated Indices 15 Oct : A K
Australian Region 3 11111211
Darwin 3 21111111
Townsville 7 22222222
Learmonth 3 10111202
Camden 2 11110101
Canberra 2 12010200
Hobart 2 11110201
Casey(Ant) 7 23321112
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 15 Oct :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Camden 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 15 Oct : A
Fredericksburg 3
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 14 Oct : A K
Fredericksburg 3
Planetary 5 1122 2101
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
16 Oct 5 Quiet
17 Oct 15 Quiet to unsettled with isolated active periods
possible.
18 Oct 10 Quiet to Unsettled
COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity is expected to remain mostly at
quiet levels for 16 October. The effect of a high speed solar
wind stream from a recurrent coronal hole is expected to result
in slightly elevated geomagnetic activity for 17-18 October with
isolated active periods possible for 17 October.
-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
15 Oct Normal-fair Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
16 Oct Normal Normal Normal
17 Oct Normal Normal Normal-Fair
18 Oct Normal Normal Normal-Fair
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
15 Oct -2
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day,
Depressed by 30% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for October: 10
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
16 Oct 0 depressed 10 to 20%/near predicted monthly values
17 Oct 0 depressed 10 to 20%/near predicted monthly values
18 Oct 0 depressed 10 to 20%/near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Mild depressions were observed at times during the past
24 hours primarily for northern Australian/Equatorial regions.
Mild depressions are expected at times for the Aus/NZ regions,
otherwise mostly near predicted monthly values are expected for
the next few days.
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 14 Oct
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 9.7E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.9E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.10E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 0%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A1.0
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 14 Oct
Speed: 308 km/sec Density: 5.2 p/cc Temp: 48300 K Bz: -2 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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