[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 05 October 07

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 05/2330Z OCTOBER 2007 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 05 OCTOBER AND FORECAST FOR 06 OCTOBER - 08 OCTOBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 05 Oct:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 05 Oct:  68/2

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             06 Oct             07 Oct             08 Oct
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    67/0               67/0               67/0

COMMENT: Solar wind speed is presently at 420 km/s. The north-south 
component of the interplanetary magnetic field (Bz) fluctuated 
between +/-3nT over the last 24 hours. 

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 05 Oct: Quiet 

Estimated Indices 05 Oct :  A   K           
   Australian Region       5   22222111
      Darwin               4   21111112
      Townsville           6   22222221
      Learmonth            6   22222121
      Camden               4   11212111
      Canberra             4   11222110
      Hobart               5   22212111
      Casey(Ant)           7   33222111
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 05 Oct : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Camden               2   (Quiet)
      Canberra             2   (Quiet)
      Hobart               4   (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 05 Oct : A 
           Fredericksburg         4
           Planetary              5                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 04 Oct :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         8
           Planetary             10   4322 2211     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
06 Oct     4    Quiet 
07 Oct     4    Quiet 
08 Oct     4    Quiet 

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
05 Oct      Normal         Normal         Normal-poor    
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
06 Oct      Normal         Normal         Normal-poor   
07 Oct      Normal         Normal         Normal-poor   
08 Oct      Normal         Normal         Normal-poor   

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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY

Date   T index
05 Oct    -8

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
      Depressed by 10-20%.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 20%.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Depressed by 10-15%. 
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Depressed by 15% during the local day. 
      Near predicted monthly values during local night
      when trace is visible on the ionogram.

Predicted Monthly T index for October:  10

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
06 Oct    -5    depressed 10 to 20%/near predicted monthly values 
07 Oct    -5    depressed 10 to 20%/near predicted monthly values 
08 Oct     0    Near predicted monthly values 
COMMENT: HF conditions were were most likely depressed due to 
low ionisation of the ionosphere. 
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 04 Oct
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   1.8E+06
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.8E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.50E+08   (moderate fluence)   
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:17%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A1.0

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 04 Oct
Speed: 559 km/sec  Density:    1.8 p/cc  Temp:   123000 K  Bz:   0 nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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