[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 04 October 07

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 04/2330Z OCTOBER 2007 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 04 OCTOBER AND FORECAST FOR 05 OCTOBER - 07 OCTOBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 04 Oct:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 04 Oct:  67/0


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             05 Oct             06 Oct             07 Oct
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    67/0               67/0               67/0

COMMENT: Solar wind speed is presently at 510 km/s and is expected 
to steadily decline over the next several days to just under 
400 km/s. The north-south component of the interplanetary magnetic 
field (Bz) fluctuated between +/-3nT over the last 24 hours. 

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 04 Oct: Quiet to Unsettled 

Estimated Indices 04 Oct :  A   K           
   Australian Region       8   22233211
      Darwin               7   22133211
      Townsville           9   23233221
      Learmonth            9   22233321
      Camden               7   12133211
      Canberra             7   -2223211
      Hobart               8   22233211
      Casey(Ant)          14   34333321
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 04 Oct : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Camden               0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Hobart               9   (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 04 Oct : A 
           Fredericksburg         7
           Planetary             10                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 03 Oct :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         9
           Planetary             18   3433 4333     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
05 Oct     6    Quiet 
06 Oct     4    Quiet 
07 Oct     4    Quiet 


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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
04 Oct      Normal         Normal         Normal-poor    
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
05 Oct      Normal         Normal         Normal
06 Oct      Normal         Normal         Normal
07 Oct      Normal         Normal         Normal

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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
04 Oct    -9

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 15% during local day, 
      Depressed by 25% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Depressed by 20% during local day,
      Depressed by 15% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day
      when trace is visible on ionogram.

Predicted Monthly T index for October:  10

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
05 Oct    -5    depressed 10 to 20%/near predicted monthly values 
06 Oct    -5    depressed 10 to 20%/near predicted monthly values 
07 Oct     0    Near predicted monthly values 

COMMENT: HF conditions were were most likely depressed due to 
low ionisation of the ionosphere. 
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 03 Oct
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   4.3E+06
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.7E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.20E+08   (moderate fluence)   
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:16%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A1.0

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 03 Oct
Speed: 538 km/sec  Density:    2.7 p/cc  Temp:   156000 K  Bz:   0 nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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