[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 01 October 07
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Tue Oct 2 09:51:08 EST 2007
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 01/2330Z OCTOBER 2007 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 01 OCTOBER AND FORECAST FOR 02 OCTOBER - 04 OCTOBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 01 Oct: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 01 Oct: 68/2
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
02 Oct 03 Oct 04 Oct
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 68/2 68/2 67/0
COMMENT: Solar wind speed has declined to 460 km/s and is expected
to remain steady at approximately 400 km/s. Late in the UT day
on 03 October the solar wind is expected to increase again due
to a geoeffective coronal hole, reaching approximately 550 km/s.
The north-south component of the interplanetary magnetic field
(Bz) fluctuated between +/-2nT over the last 24 hours. AR 971
spot group appears stable and is not expected to produce any
significant flares.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 01 Oct: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 01 Oct : A K
Australian Region 7 22232212
Darwin 6 21132212
Townsville 9 22233222
Learmonth 7 21232212
Camden 5 12232101
Canberra 6 12232202
Hobart 6 12232211
Casey(Ant) 11 3-332213
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 01 Oct :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 3 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Camden 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 13 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 01 Oct : A
Fredericksburg 7
Planetary 8
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 30 Sep : A K
Fredericksburg 11
Planetary 12 3433 2122
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
02 Oct 8 Quiet to Unsettled
03 Oct 12 Unsettled
04 Oct 12 Unsettled
COMMENT: Expect mostly unsettled conditions on the 03 October
with isolated active levels due to a high speed solar wind stream.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
01 Oct Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-poor
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
02 Oct Normal Normal Normal-Fair
03 Oct Normal Normal Normal-Fair
04 Oct Normal Normal Normal-Fair
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
01 Oct -10
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 30% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 25% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Depressed by 15-20%.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Depressed 20% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night
when trace is present.
Predicted Monthly T index for October: 10
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
02 Oct 0 depressed 10 to 20%/near predicted monthly values
03 Oct 5 Near predicted monthly values
04 Oct 5 near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
20%
COMMENT: HF conditions were depressed due to geomagnetic activity
induced by a coronal hole.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 30 Sep
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 2.5E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.6E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 6.10E+08 (high fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:25%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A1.0
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 30 Sep
Speed: 630 km/sec Density: 1.6 p/cc Temp: 139000 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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